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Probable Stats / Women's / Friday, November 20

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Jax State at North Dakota

Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Betty Engelstad Sioux Center. Jax State our rank 275 · 2-1; North Dakota our rank 348 · 1-2.

Who will win Jax State vs North Dakota?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Jacksonville State a 67% chance to beat North Dakota, with a projected score of Jax State 68, North Dakota 62.

To winJax State 67%North Dakota 33%
Projected score68–62Jax State, then North Dakota
Margin5.8Jax State · no line posted
Total130.8no line posted
First half33–29Jax State ahead 62%
Jax State by 40by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10North Dakota by 20Model: Jax State by 5.8Jax State by 40by 20EvenNorth Dakota by 20Model: Jax State by 5.8

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Jax State
CorporanG · 32 min14.55.13.715+ 46%
WardF · 27 min12.96.11.415+ 36%
MonsonG · 34 min10.35.40.810+ 51%
ThornsburyG · 34 min6.93.73.45+ 64%
North Dakota
MavesG · 28 min10.33.41.610+ 50%
HarrisG · 27 min9.24.01.110+ 42%
WellsG · 27 min6.53.22.65+ 61%
PieknyG · 23 min6.21.90.65+ 59%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Jax State 2-1WWL

    1. Nov 9L 63-66vs North Alabama
    2. Nov 6W 77-62vs Life University
    3. Nov 2W 75-39vs Oglethorpe
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 71.7 and allowing 55.7

    North Dakota 1-2LWL

    1. Nov 12L 49-77at Milwaukee
    2. Nov 8W 84-68vs Minot State
    3. Nov 2L 68-81vs Crookston (MN)
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 67.0 and allowing 75.3

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Jax StateNorth Dakota
    Points scored per 100 possessions84.2 269th80.0 317th
    Points allowed per 10099.1 283rd106.8 358th
    Possessions a game70.2 331st72.6 129th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)45.0% 208th44.8% 219th
    Opponents' shooting46.9% 265th45.7% 189th
    Turnovers, share of possessions23.6% 193rd23.0% 134th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.7% 293rd29.5% 335th
    Free throws per shot0.22 151st0.23 91st

    The widest gap: Jax State's offense (269th) against North Dakota's defense (358th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Jax State 33, North Dakota 29
    First-half margin
    Jax State by 3.4
    First-half points, both teams
    62.0
    Projected second half
    Jax State 36, North Dakota 33
    Second-half points, both teams
    68.8
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Jax State, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 27.0 allowed
    North Dakota, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 38.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Jax State

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Emily MonsonG3410.35.40.81.3
    10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 35%
    Kyera ThornsburyG346.93.73.40.7
    5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48%
    Kamryn CorporanG3214.55.13.71.4
    15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 49%
    Camden WardF2712.96.11.40.3
    15+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 40%
    Solene JacksonG184.62.00.80.5
    5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 38%
    Gabby MoralesG173.81.70.70.8
    5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 50%
    Mina DjurdjevicF143.42.90.30.4
    5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 33%
    Lillian JacksonF122.42.10.40.0
    53% to play · 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 56%

    North Dakota

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jayda MavesG2810.33.41.61.2
    10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 46%
    Ciona WellsG276.53.22.61.1
    5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 47%
    London HarrisG279.24.01.10.5
    10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 37%
    Sydney PieknyG236.21.90.61.5
    5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 41%
    Aliyah GreenF225.65.81.00.2
    5+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 27%
    Lauren HillesheimG164.41.80.50.5
    5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 38%
    Kendra HarveyG143.32.10.50.5
    5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 36%
    Jayden SonnenbergG134.01.80.60.5
    5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 39%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 20

    All games
    1. 6 PMprojected 68-67UMass at Boston College, women's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 67-68G Washington at Howard, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 63-59Miami OH at S Indiana, women's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 69-71CA Baptist at UC Davis, women's: game page
    5. 8:30 PMprojected 68-64Harvard at Colorado St, women's: game page
    6. 11 PMprojected 69-82Baylor vs USC, women's: game page
    Jax State next: at Southern Miss, Mon, Nov 16 · 23%North Dakota next: at Detroit Mercy, Sat, Nov 14 · 14%Jax State: schedule and oddsNorth Dakota: schedule and odds