Jax State at Southern Miss
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Reed Green Coliseum. Jax State our rank 275 · 2-1; Southern Miss our rank 198 · 3-1.
Who will win Jax State vs Southern Miss?
The model gives Southern Miss a 77% chance to beat Jacksonville State, with a projected score of Southern Miss 69, Jax State 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | |||||
| BrelandG · 30 min | 13.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 15+ 38% | |
| MarshallG · 22 min | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 10+ 51% | |
| NarcisseG · 28 min | 9.1 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 41% | |
| LanghamG · 28 min | 8.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 10+ 35% | |
| Jax State | |||||
| CorporanG · 32 min | 13.0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 15+ 36% | |
| WardF · 26 min | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| MonsonG · 34 min | 9.3 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| ThornsburyG · 33 min | 6.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kylie Marshall: Jax State 25%Southern Miss 75%
The white mark is the call with her: Southern Miss 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Southern Miss without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | ||||
| Kylie Marshall | 0.9 | 75% | −2 | 60–68 |
| Meloney Thames | 0.6 | 76% | −1 | 60–69 |
| Whitney Hart | 0.6 | 76% | −1 | 60–69 |
Change is in Southern Miss's win chance, in points. Scores read Jax State, then Southern Miss. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Jax State 2-1WWL
- Nov 9L 63-66vs North Alabama
- Nov 6W 77-62vs Life University
- Nov 2W 75-39vs Oglethorpe
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 71.7 and allowing 55.7
Southern Miss 3-1WLWW
- Nov 12W 73-60vs Jackson St
- Nov 9W 75-55vs Miss Valley St
- Nov 5L 48-56at Auburn
- Nov 2W 85-59vs Mississippi Christian
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 70.2 and allowing 57.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Jax State | Southern Miss | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 84.2 269th | 86.4 242nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.1 283rd | 93.4 159th |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 331st | 73.9 51st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.0% 208th | 41.5% 348th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.9% 265th | 43.6% 67th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 193rd | 22.2% 78th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.7% 293rd | 32.0% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 151st | 0.20 270th |
The widest gap: Southern Miss's defense (159th) against Jax State's offense (269th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Jax State 28, Southern Miss 33
- First-half margin
- Southern Miss by 5.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.8
- Projected second half
- Jax State 32, Southern Miss 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Jax State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 27.0 allowed
- Southern Miss, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.5 scored, 30.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Jax State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily MonsonG | 34 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Kyera ThornsburyG | 33 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kamryn CorporanG | 32 | 13.0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Camden WardF | 26 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Solene JacksonG | 18 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Gabby MoralesG | 17 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Mina DjurdjevicF | 14 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Lillian JacksonF | 12 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 52% | |||||
Southern Miss
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayleigh BrelandG | 30 | 13.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kennedy LanghamG | 28 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 25% to play · 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Chrysta NarcisseG | 28 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Mariah ClaytonF | 26 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Kylie MarshallG | 22 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Ramiah AugursonG | 21 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Meloney ThamesG | 19 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jada GayF | 19 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Missed the last game: Kennedy Langham (32 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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