McNeese at Southern Miss
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Reed Green Coliseum. McNeese our rank 310 · 2-2; Southern Miss our rank 198 · 3-1.
Who will win McNeese vs Southern Miss?
The model gives Southern Miss a 84% chance to beat McNeese, with a projected score of Southern Miss 71, McNeese 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | |||||
| BrelandG · 30 min | 13.4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 15+ 39% | |
| MarshallG · 21 min | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 10+ 52% | |
| NarcisseG · 28 min | 9.2 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 10+ 42% | |
| LanghamG · 28 min | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 10+ 36% | |
| McNeese | |||||
| Fontenelle-PossonG · 30 min | 9.5 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 45% | |
| HamiltonG · 24 min | 9.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 41% | |
| BerryG · 34 min | 7.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 10+ 33% | |
| MottaG · 22 min | 4.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 5+ 43% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kylie Marshall: McNeese 18%Southern Miss 82%
The white mark is the call with her: Southern Miss 84%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Southern Miss without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | ||||
| Kylie Marshall | 0.9 | 82% | −2 | 59–71 |
| Meloney Thames | 0.6 | 83% | −1 | 59–71 |
| Whitney Hart | 0.6 | 83% | −1 | 59–71 |
Change is in Southern Miss's win chance, in points. Scores read McNeese, then Southern Miss. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
McNeese 2-2WWLL
- Nov 10L 43-100at LSU
- Nov 8L 59-82vs Louisiana Tech
- Nov 5W 56-51vs Grambling
- Nov 2W 65-53vs Texas A&M-Kingsville
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 55.8 and allowing 71.5
Southern Miss 3-1WLWW
- Nov 12W 73-60vs Jackson St
- Nov 9W 75-55vs Miss Valley St
- Nov 5L 48-56at Auburn
- Nov 2W 85-59vs Mississippi Christian
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 70.2 and allowing 57.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| McNeese | Southern Miss | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 83.3 280th | 86.4 242nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.7 319th | 93.4 159th |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 307th | 73.9 51st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.7% 321st | 41.5% 348th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.9% 266th | 43.6% 67th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.3% 84th | 22.2% 78th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.2% 356th | 32.0% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 274th | 0.20 270th |
The widest gap: Southern Miss's defense (159th) against McNeese's offense (280th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- McNeese 27, Southern Miss 34
- First-half margin
- Southern Miss by 7.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.8
- Projected second half
- McNeese 32, Southern Miss 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- McNeese, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 28.8 scored, 34.2 allowed
- Southern Miss, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.5 scored, 30.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
McNeese
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avari BerryG | 34 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Valencia Fontenelle-PossonG | 30 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Carley HamiltonG | 24 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Matilde MottaG | 22 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Morgan BoydG | 21 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Laura MartinezG | 19 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Sarah TaubG | 16 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Anja EkstromG | 15 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 27% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Southern Miss
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayleigh BrelandG | 30 | 13.4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Kennedy LanghamG | 28 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 25% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Chrysta NarcisseG | 28 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Mariah ClaytonF | 26 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Kylie MarshallG | 21 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ramiah AugursonG | 21 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Meloney ThamesG | 19 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jada GayF | 19 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Missed the last game: Kennedy Langham (32 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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