Hou Christian at Utah
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Jon M. Huntsman Center. Hou Christian our rank 339 · 1-3; Utah our rank 75 · 3-0.
Who will win Hou Christian vs Utah?
The model gives Utah a 99% chance to beat Houston Christian, with a projected score of Utah 79, Hou Christian 49.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | |||||
| GirardiG · 27 min | 15.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 15+ 54% | |
| EvansF · 27 min | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 10+ 40% | |
| JonesG · 23 min | 8.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 10+ 38% | |
| BradleyF · 18 min | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 35% | |
| Hou Christian | |||||
| JacksonG · 29 min | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 42% | |
| HyamsG · 27 min | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 5+ 64% | |
| HearnG · 26 min | 6.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5+ 59% | |
| FieldsG · 29 min | 5.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 5+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lena Girardi: Hou Christian 2%Utah 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Utah 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Utah without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | ||||
| Lena Girardi | 3.3 | 98% | −1 | 50–77 |
| Filipa Barros | 3.2 | 99% | 0 | 50–77 |
| Chyra Evans | 2.9 | 99% | 0 | 50–77 |
| Laia Conesa | 1.9 | 99% | 0 | 50–78 |
Change is in Utah's win chance, in points. Scores read Hou Christian, then Utah. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Hou Christian 1-3LWLL
- Nov 11L 57-66at North Texas
- Nov 6L 43-84vs Abilene Chrstn
- Nov 4W 80-45vs LeTourneau
- Nov 2L 34-72at Rice
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 53.5 and allowing 66.8
Utah 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 65-47vs Bethune
- Nov 6W 72-63vs Colorado St
- Nov 3W 76-67vs E Washington
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 71.0 and allowing 59.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Hou Christian | Utah | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 76.7 347th | 100.7 68th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.5 294th | 89.5 100th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 71.2 265th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.5% 299th | 46.8% 103rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.3% 290th | 43.2% 51st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.9% 341st | 23.2% 153rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.6% 359th | 30.9% 286th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 139th | 0.21 161st |
The widest gap: Utah's defense (100th) against Hou Christian's offense (347th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Hou Christian 22, Utah 39
- First-half margin
- Utah by 17.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.5
- Projected second half
- Hou Christian 27, Utah 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Hou Christian, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 30.5 scored, 32.2 allowed
- Utah, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Hou Christian
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan JacksonG | 29 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Hannah FieldsG | 29 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Dasia HyamsG | 27 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Remy HearnG | 26 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Tove CaesarF | 22 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Nikki StanicG | 20 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tessa EngelmanF | 17 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Sadie HallG | 14 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 55% to play · 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lena GirardiG | 27 | 15.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Chyra EvansF | 27 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Filipa BarrosG | 27 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 8+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 59% | |||||
| Laia ConesaG | 26 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Peyton JonesG | 23 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Olivia BradleyF | 18 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Rylee LittleF | 18 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Evelina OttoF | 17 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
Missed the last game: Olivia Bradley (23 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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