Who will win Brown vs Maine?
The model gives Maine a 71% chance to beat Brown, with a projected score of Maine 72, Brown 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maine | |||||
| GruberC · 26 min | 13.0 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 15+ 36% | |
| WoodsG · 34 min | 11.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| FitzpatrickG · 32 min | 11.4 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| SainF · 26 min | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 48% | |
 Brown | |||||
| PowellG · 30 min | 11.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 58% | |
| OfunreinF · 18 min | 10.2 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| JanapatiG · 23 min | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 5+ 64% | |
| SmithF · 18 min | 6.3 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lizzy Gruber: Brown 33%Maine 67%
The white mark is the call with her: Maine 71%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Maine without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | ||||
| Lizzy Gruber | 1.6 | 67% | −4 | 66–71 |
| Kaliyah Sain | 0.8 | 69% | −2 | 66–72 |
| Brown | ||||
| Olivia Young | 0.6 | 73% | +2 | 65–72 |
Change is in Maine's win chance, in points. Scores read Brown, then Maine. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Brown 1-3LLWL
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 66.0 and allowing 75.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Brown | Maine | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.7 181st | 92.7 141st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.1 281st | 98.3 261st |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.4% 184th | 48.5% 35th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.2% 319th | 46.0% 215th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.2% 290th | 23.3% 165th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.3% 152nd | 31.4% 259th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 204th | 0.21 175th |
The widest gap: Maine's offense (141st) against Brown's defense (281st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Brown 31, Maine 35
- First-half margin
- Maine by 4.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.1
- Projected second half
- Brown 35, Maine 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Brown, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.2 scored, 36.2 allowed
- Maine, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 37.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Brown
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia YoungG | 31 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Gia PowellG | 30 | 11.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Sravya JanapatiG | 23 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Charlotte Adams-LopezG | 22 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Caitlyn KramerG | 21 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ ast 60% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Isabella WesleyG | 19 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Aima OfunreinF | 18 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 49% | |||||
| Nalah SmithF | 18 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 52% | |||||
Maine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lala WoodsG | 34 | 11.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Maddie FitzpatrickG | 32 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 8+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Olivia AlvarezG | 29 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Kaliyah SainF | 26 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Lizzy GruberC | 26 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Emmie Streams-StevensG | 15 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Bailey BreenF | 12 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Abby PriceG | 11 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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