Who won Brown vs Siena?
Final: Siena 82, Brown 71. Before tip-off the model gave Siena a 29% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 7.5 points for Brown. Nicole Melious scored 25 for Siena; Gia Powell had 25 for Brown.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Olivia Young: Brown 69%Siena 31%
The white mark is the call with her: Brown 71%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Brown without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brown | ||||
| Olivia Young | 0.6 | 69% | −2 | 82–75 |
 Siena | ||||
| Francesca Schiro | 1.6 | 74% | +3 | 83–74 |
| Kaiya Rain Tucker | 0.8 | 73% | +2 | 82–74 |
Change is in Brown's win chance, in points. Scores read Brown, then Siena. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Brown | Siena | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.7 181st | 89.1 193rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.1 281st | 98.7 269th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.4% 184th | 45.2% 195th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.2% 319th | 47.2% 282nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.2% 290th | 23.3% 163rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.3% 152nd | 34.7% 92nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 204th | 0.19 320th |
The widest gap: Brown's offense (181st) against Siena's defense (269th), of 363 teams.
First half
Siena led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 19.3 points and the total by 4.9.
- At halftime
- Brown 32, Siena 47
- Projected halftime score
- Brown 39, Siena 35
- First-half margin
- Brown by 4.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Brown
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gia PowellG | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Olivia YoungG | 31 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 2 |
| Nalah SmithF | 22 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Sravya JanapatiG | 22 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Isabella WesleyG | 21 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Charlotte Adams-LopezG | 19 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Aima OfunreinF | 19 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Caitlyn KramerG | 18 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Monét WitherspoonG | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Siena
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca SchiroG | 38 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Karissa AntoineG | 33 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Myanna HatchetteG | 31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Nicole MeliousG | 31 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| Caydence HadleyG | 27 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Kaiya Rain TuckerG | 23 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
| Stella ZiogasG | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dany DiazG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alazne CanalesG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |