Who will win Siena vs New Haven?
The model gives Siena a 67% chance to beat New Haven, with a projected score of Siena 68, New Haven 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Siena | |||||
| SchiroG · 35 min | 20.9 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 20+ 54% | |
| MeliousG · 30 min | 13.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 15+ 39% | |
| Rain TuckerG · 26 min | 11.0 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| HadleyG · 25 min | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 34% | |
 New Haven | |||||
| KelleyG · 32 min | 15.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 15+ 53% | |
| TurpinG · 26 min | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 59% | |
| McKayG · 21 min | 7.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 5+ 70% | |
| Lazaro-CarrascoF · 23 min | 5.9 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 5+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Francesca Schiro: Siena 63%New Haven 37%
The white mark is the call with her: Siena 67%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Siena without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena | ||||
| Francesca Schiro | 1.6 | 63% | −4 | 68–63 |
| Kaiya Rain Tucker | 0.8 | 65% | −2 | 68–63 |
Change is in Siena's win chance, in points. Scores read Siena, then New Haven. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Siena 1-3WLLL
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 70.2 and allowing 75.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Siena | New Haven | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.1 193rd | 78.4 328th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.7 269th | 99.4 289th |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 70.5 318th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.2% 195th | 43.1% 311th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.2% 282nd | 44.7% 138th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.3% 163rd | 24.4% 256th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.7% 92nd | 33.5% 147th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 320th | 0.20 242nd |
The widest gap: Siena's offense (193rd) against New Haven's defense (289th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Siena 33, New Haven 29
- First-half margin
- Siena by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.1
- Projected second half
- Siena 36, New Haven 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Siena, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
- New Haven, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 39.0 scored, 24.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Siena
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca SchiroG | 35 | 20.9 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| 20+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Nicole MeliousG | 30 | 13.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Myanna HatchetteG | 27 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Kaiya Rain TuckerG | 26 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 9+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Caydence HadleyG | 25 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Karissa AntoineG | 21 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Grace SundbackG | 17 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Nila GiraudG | 15 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 79% to play · 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
New Haven
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teaira KelleyG | 32 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Carla RamirezG | 27 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Tanavia TurpinG | 26 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Claudia Lazaro-CarrascoF | 23 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Jasmine McKayG | 21 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Laura Vera RamirezG | 21 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Simone Pugh-GreavesC | 13 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
| Schuyler ColesG | 13 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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