Who will win New Haven vs Iona?
The model gives Iona a 77% chance to beat New Haven, with a projected score of Iona 66, New Haven 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iona | |||||
| VasquezG · 32 min | 14.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 15+ 48% | |
| HerbertF · 28 min | 13.6 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 15+ 40% | |
| GonzalezG · 28 min | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 47% | |
| ZaccagniniG · 30 min | 8.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 10+ 34% | |
 New Haven | |||||
| KelleyG · 31 min | 14.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 15+ 46% | |
| TurpinG · 26 min | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 54% | |
| McKayG · 21 min | 7.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 5+ 66% | |
| Lazaro-CarrascoF · 23 min | 5.5 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 5+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
New Haven 1-1WL
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 71.5 and allowing 63.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| New Haven | Iona | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.4 328th | 85.5 258th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.4 289th | 99.1 283rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 318th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.1% 311th | 44.7% 228th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 138th | 46.9% 262nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.4% 256th | 22.5% 93rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 147th | 28.6% 348th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 242nd | 0.24 30th |
The widest gap: Iona's defense (283rd) against New Haven's offense (328th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- New Haven 26, Iona 32
- First-half margin
- Iona by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.4
- Projected second half
- New Haven 30, Iona 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 64.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- New Haven, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 39.0 scored, 24.0 allowed
- Iona, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 30.5 scored, 35.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
New Haven
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teaira KelleyG | 31 | 14.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Carla RamirezG | 26 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Tanavia TurpinG | 26 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Claudia Lazaro-CarrascoF | 23 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Jasmine McKayG | 21 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Laura Vera RamirezG | 21 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Simone Pugh-GreavesC | 14 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
| Schuyler ColesG | 13 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Iona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe VasquezG | 32 | 14.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Mya ZaccagniniG | 30 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Johanna FloresF | 29 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Adrianna GonzalezG | 28 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Anyla HerbertF | 28 | 13.6 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Wilma TuomiF | 21 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Claudia FielG | 15 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Giselle GrantG | 14 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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