Who will win Army vs Siena?
The model gives Army a 74% chance to beat Siena, with a projected score of Army 73, Siena 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Army | |||||
| SmithF · 30 min | 17.7 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 20+ 37% | |
| TadeG · 34 min | 14.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 15+ 44% | |
| ReardonF · 22 min | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 53% | |
| HastickG · 28 min | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 31% | |
 Siena | |||||
| SchiroG · 35 min | 19.7 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 20+ 48% | |
| MeliousG · 30 min | 12.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| Rain TuckerG · 26 min | 10.4 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 51% | |
| HadleyG · 25 min | 7.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kya Smith: Army 64%Siena 36%
The white mark is the call with her: Army 74%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Army without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | ||||
| Kya Smith | 3.6 | 64% | −10 | 71–67 |
| Camryn Tade | 2.9 | 66% | −8 | 72–67 |
| Taylor Wilson | 1.1 | 71% | −3 | 73–66 |
| Reganne Reardon | 1.1 | 71% | −3 | 73–66 |
| Siena | ||||
| Francesca Schiro | 1.6 | 78% | +4 | 74–65 |
| Kaiya Rain Tucker | 0.8 | 76% | +2 | 74–65 |
Change is in Army's win chance, in points. Scores read Army, then Siena. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Army 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 80-75vs George Mason
- Nov 5W 81-56at Brown
- Nov 2W 81-28vs St. Thomas Aquinas
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 80.7 and allowing 53.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Army | Siena | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.5 94th | 89.1 193rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.4 137th | 98.7 269th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 341st | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.7% 58th | 45.2% 195th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.2% 107th | 47.2% 282nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.6% 102nd | 23.3% 163rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 262nd | 34.7% 92nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 44th | 0.19 320th |
The widest gap: Army's offense (94th) against Siena's defense (269th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Army 35, Siena 31
- First-half margin
- Army by 4.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.7
- Projected second half
- Army 38, Siena 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Army, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 21.0 allowed
- Siena, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Army
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn TadeG | 34 | 14.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Kya SmithF | 30 | 17.7 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 9+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Fiona HastickG | 28 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Brooke WilsonG | 28 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Taylor WilsonG | 28 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Reganne ReardonF | 22 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Audrey AnneeG | 16 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
Siena
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca SchiroG | 35 | 19.7 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Nicole MeliousG | 30 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Myanna HatchetteG | 27 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Kaiya Rain TuckerG | 26 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 9+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Caydence HadleyG | 25 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Karissa AntoineG | 21 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Grace SundbackG | 17 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Nila GiraudG | 15 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 79% to play · 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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