Who will win Merrimack vs Brown?
The model gives Brown a 90% chance to beat Merrimack, with a projected score of Brown 73, Merrimack 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brown | |||||
| PowellG · 29 min | 12.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 63% | |
| OfunreinF · 18 min | 11.3 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 10+ 57% | |
| JanapatiG · 22 min | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 5+ 69% | |
| SmithF · 18 min | 7.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 5+ 65% | |
 Merrimack | |||||
| CrespoG · 29 min | 9.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| BorsutzkiG · 26 min | 7.6 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 5+ 70% | |
| KentF · 29 min | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 5+ 66% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Olivia Young: Merrimack 11%Brown 89%
The white mark is the call with her: Brown 90%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Brown without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown | ||||
| Olivia Young | 0.6 | 89% | −1 | 57–72 |
Change is in Brown's win chance, in points. Scores read Merrimack, then Brown. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Merrimack 0-4LLLL
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 48.0 and allowing 80.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Merrimack | Brown | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 75.8 351st | 89.7 181st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.4 291st | 99.1 281st |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 84th | 71.5 225th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.7% 227th | 45.4% 184th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.1% 278th | 48.2% 319th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 30.0% 360th | 25.2% 290th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 331st | 33.3% 152nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 264th | 0.21 204th |
The widest gap: Brown's offense (181st) against Merrimack's defense (291st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Merrimack 26, Brown 35
- First-half margin
- Brown by 9.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.6
- Projected second half
- Merrimack 31, Brown 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Merrimack, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 23.0 scored, 39.2 allowed
- Brown, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.2 scored, 36.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Merrimack
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie KentF | 29 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Claudia CrespoG | 29 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Kristen KelleyG | 27 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Joi WilliamsG | 26 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Olivia BorsutzkiG | 26 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Claudia MarinaG | 21 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Naomi WilsonF | 15 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Brown
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia YoungG | 30 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Gia PowellG | 29 | 12.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Sravya JanapatiG | 22 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Charlotte Adams-LopezG | 22 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Caitlyn KramerG | 21 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Isabella WesleyG | 19 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Aima OfunreinF | 18 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Nalah SmithF | 18 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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