Who will win Marshall vs Wright St?
The model gives Marshall a 74% chance to beat Wright State, with a projected score of Marshall 73, Wright St 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marshall | |||||
| OlsonG · 31 min | 14.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 15+ 46% | |
| GallagherG · 31 min | 12.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 10+ 64% | |
| IngramG · 27 min | 9.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 10+ 43% | |
| ChesterfieldF · 25 min | 9.3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
 Wright St | |||||
| TerryG · 27 min | 12.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| SagesterG · 32 min | 12.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 64% | |
| DanielsF · 24 min | 9.7 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 46% | |
| DilenG · 27 min | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ni'Kiah Chesterfield: Marshall 69%Wright St 31%
The white mark is the call with her: Marshall 74%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Marshall without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | ||||
| Ni'Kiah Chesterfield | 2.0 | 69% | −5 | 72–66 |
| Olivia Olson | 1.9 | 69% | −5 | 72–66 |
| Maddie Moody | 1.5 | 70% | −4 | 72–65 |
| Kassie Ingram | 1.4 | 70% | −4 | 72–65 |
| Wright St | ||||
| Jayden Terry | 0.8 | 76% | +2 | 73–64 |
Change is in Marshall's win chance, in points. Scores read Marshall, then Wright St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Marshall 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 60.2
Wright St 1-2LWL
- Nov 8L 52-109at Michigan
- Nov 6W 103-25vs Ohio Christian
- Nov 3L 71-73at Loyola Chicago
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 75.3 and allowing 69.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marshall | Wright St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.9 117th | 89.1 192nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.0 152nd | 101.4 317th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.2% 130th | 46.7% 109th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.8% 37th | 48.8% 338th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.6% 268th | 24.9% 280th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 100th | 30.9% 283rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 19th | 0.26 10th |
The widest gap: Marshall's offense (117th) against Wright St's defense (317th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marshall 35, Wright St 30
- First-half margin
- Marshall by 4.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.2
- Projected second half
- Marshall 38, Wright St 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marshall, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
- Wright St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marshall
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassie GallagherG | 31 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Olivia OlsonG | 31 | 14.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kassie IngramG | 27 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Ni'Kiah ChesterfieldF | 25 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Emily BrattonG | 21 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Maddie MoodyF | 20 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Paris GilmoreG | 18 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 31% to play · 5+ pts 47% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Anaya HarrisG | 16 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
Missed the last game: Paris Gilmore (20 min a game) and Leyocha Marigney (15 min a game).
Wright St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rylee SagesterG | 32 | 12.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Olivia BrownG | 31 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 44% · 5+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jayden TerryG | 27 | 12.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Maja DilenG | 27 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Allie DanielsF | 24 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Grace OkihF | 21 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 46% | |||||
| Megan CampbellG | 18 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Sydney WilliamsG | 17 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Missed the last game: Megan Campbell (22 min a game) and Elaina Rager (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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