FGCU at South Carolina
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Colonial Life Arena. FGCU our rank 111 · 2-1; South Carolina AP 1, our rank 1 · 3-0.
Who will win FGCU vs South Carolina?
The model gives South Carolina a >99% chance to beat Florida Gulf Coast, with a projected score of South Carolina 91, FGCU 44.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | |||||
| EdwardsF · 25 min | 15.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 15+ 53% | |
| JohnsonG · 25 min | 12.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| KittsF · 21 min | 12.2 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 63% | |
| MakeerG · 25 min | 10.9 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 55% | |
| FGCU | |||||
| LightbourneG · 21 min | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 5+ 61% | |
| DouglasG · 23 min | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 5+ 53% | |
| ZeinstraG · 26 min | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 5+ 52% | |
| RolleG · 23 min | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 5+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Joyce Edwards: FGCU 1%South Carolina 99%
The white mark is the call with her: South Carolina >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | South Carolina without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | ||||
| Joyce Edwards | 8.6 | 99% | −1 | 48–86 |
| Jordan Lee | 6.8 | >99% | 0 | 47–87 |
| Agot Makeer | 6.6 | >99% | 0 | 47–87 |
| Tessa Johnson | 6.5 | >99% | 0 | 47–87 |
| FGCU | ||||
| Lily Zeinstra | 1.8 | >99% | 0 | 43–92 |
| Sinai Douglas | 1.6 | >99% | 0 | 43–92 |
| Eve Alexander | 1.3 | >99% | 0 | 43–91 |
| Denika Lightbourne | 1.3 | >99% | 0 | 43–91 |
Change is in South Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read FGCU, then South Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FGCU 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 99-31vs Ave Maria
- Nov 7W 89-59vs Arkansas St
- Nov 3L 50-79at Indiana
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 79.3 and allowing 56.3
South Carolina 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 65-44at ClemsonDidn't cover −26.5 · Under 133.5
- Nov 8W 84-39vs North CarolinaCovered −16.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2W 101-93vs Maryland
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.3 and allowing 58.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FGCU | South Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.8 140th | 121.4 1st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.5 85th | 66.2 1st |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.3% 187th | 48.2% 41st |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.3% 112th | 41.2% 14th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.7% 200th | 22.0% 65th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 194th | 37.9% 17th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 98th | 0.25 22nd |
The widest gap: South Carolina's defense (1st) against FGCU's offense (140th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FGCU 18, South Carolina 45
- First-half margin
- South Carolina by 27.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.6
- Projected second half
- FGCU 25, South Carolina 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FGCU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 22.7 allowed
- South Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FGCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily ZeinstraG | 26 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Karina GordonG | 24 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Sinai DouglasG | 23 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Cerina RolleG | 23 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Denika LightbourneG | 21 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Amelia HobsonG | 20 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Jalei PillowF | 16 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 52% | |||||
| Ari TurlaG | 16 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
South Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LeeG | 26 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Joyce EdwardsF | 25 | 15.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Agot MakeerG | 25 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Tessa JohnsonG | 25 | 12.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Chloe KittsF | 21 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 9+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ashlyn WatkinsF | 17 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Jerzy RobinsonG | 17 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Justine LoubensG | 12 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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