Hawai'i v California
Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at George Q. Cannon Activities Center. Hawai'i our rank 160 · 0-2; California our rank 26 · 4-0.
Who will win Hawai'i vs California?
The model gives California a 96% chance to beat Hawai'i, with a projected score of California 78, Hawai'i 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | |||||
| TwidaleG · 30 min | 15.1 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 15+ 50% | |
| DowellG · 23 min | 12.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 10+ 64% | |
| BarnesF · 27 min | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 48% | |
| MaulG · 25 min | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| Hawai'i | |||||
| FlavellG · 33 min | 14.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 15+ 48% | |
| TamiloC · 30 min | 13.5 | 9.5 | 0.7 | 15+ 40% | |
| BondG · 24 min | 5.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 5+ 47% | |
| LefotuG · 24 min | 4.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 5+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lulu Twidale: Hawai'i 8%California 92%
The white mark is the call with her: California 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | California without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | ||||
| Lulu Twidale | 4.6 | 92% | −4 | 58–76 |
| Gisella Maul | 4.2 | 92% | −4 | 58–76 |
| Shannon Dowell | 3.7 | 93% | −3 | 58–76 |
| Taylor Barnes | 3.7 | 93% | −3 | 58–76 |
| Hawai'i | ||||
| Ritorya Tamilo | 3.5 | 98% | +2 | 54–80 |
| Bailey Flavell | 1.6 | 97% | +1 | 55–79 |
| Jovi Lefotu | 0.6 | 96% | 0 | 56–78 |
| Rebecca Moors | 0.6 | 96% | 0 | 56–78 |
Change is in California's win chance, in points. Scores read Hawai'i, then California. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Hawai'i 0-2LL
- Nov 5L 79-85at San Francisco
- Nov 2L 54-87at Oregon
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 66.5 and allowing 86.0
California 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 78-64vs Charleston
- Nov 8W 87-65vs San Francisco
- Nov 5W 100-46vs Long Beach St
- Nov 2W 80-58vs Washington St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 86.2 and allowing 58.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Hawai'i | California | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.0 165th | 106.7 30th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.8 148th | 81.2 28th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.7% 159th | 47.5% 70th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.1% 50th | 44.5% 122nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 244th | 21.8% 50th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 222nd | 31.9% 226th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 221st | 0.21 186th |
The widest gap: California's defense (28th) against Hawai'i's offense (165th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Hawai'i 25, California 38
- First-half margin
- California by 12.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Projected second half
- Hawai'i 30, California 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Hawai'i, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 33.0 scored, 39.5 allowed
- California, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 40.5 scored, 24.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Hawai'i
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey FlavellG | 33 | 14.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Ritorya TamiloC | 30 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 10+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Rebecca MoorsF | 26 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Jovi LefotuG | 24 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Teyahna BondG | 24 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Taryn BondG | 18 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Zyriah PriceF | 15 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Jade PeacockG | 15 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
California
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lulu TwidaleG | 30 | 15.1 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Taylor BarnesF | 27 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ruby PerkinsG | 26 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Gisella MaulG | 25 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Shannon DowellG | 23 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Albina SylaC | 20 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Zara RussellF | 16 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jovana JevtovicC | 15 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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