Who will win St Thomas vs Drake?
The model gives Drake a 76% chance to beat St. Thomas, with a projected score of Drake 72, St Thomas 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Drake | |||||
| BeckerG · 27 min | 10.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 54% | |
| ViceF · 20 min | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 10+ 49% | |
| MonahanG · 28 min | 9.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 10+ 48% | |
| DaileyG · 19 min | 7.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 5+ 69% | |
 St Thomas | |||||
| SandF · 25 min | 10.3 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 10+ 50% | |
| WernerG · 27 min | 8.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 36% | |
| VollG · 24 min | 6.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 5+ 61% | |
| HaugeG · 25 min | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Anna Becker: St Thomas 27%Drake 73%
The white mark is the call with her: Drake 76%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Drake without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | ||||
| Anna Becker | 1.3 | 73% | −3 | 63–71 |
| Quinn Vice | 1.1 | 74% | −2 | 63–71 |
| Grace Knutson | 0.8 | 74% | −2 | 63–71 |
| Lexi Carlsen | 0.6 | 75% | −1 | 63–71 |
| St Thomas | ||||
| Alyssa Sand | 2.1 | 81% | +5 | 61–73 |
| Mikayla Werner | 0.9 | 78% | +2 | 62–72 |
| Savannah McGowan | 0.6 | 78% | +2 | 62–72 |
Change is in Drake's win chance, in points. Scores read St Thomas, then Drake. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
St Thomas 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 76-29vs St. Catherine
- Nov 4W 77-43vs Bethel (MN)
- Nov 2L 59-67at Northern Iowa
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 70.7 and allowing 46.3
Drake 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 76-71vs Cleveland St
- Nov 6L 49-74at Kansas
- Nov 3W 76-54vs E Illinois
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 67.0 and allowing 66.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Thomas | Drake | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.3 170th | 94.1 128th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.1 195th | 93.6 163rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 73.0 96th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.8% 154th | 44.4% 254th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 197th | 45.2% 159th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.4% 180th | 23.6% 192nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 87th | 35.3% 66th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 293rd | 0.20 281st |
The widest gap: Drake's offense (128th) against St Thomas's defense (195th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- St Thomas 29, Drake 34
- First-half margin
- Drake by 5.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Projected second half
- St Thomas 33, Drake 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- St Thomas, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.5 scored, 23.5 allowed
- Drake, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.3 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikayla WernerG | 27 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Alyssa SandF | 25 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Laura HaugeG | 25 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 39% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Samantha VollG | 24 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 25% to play · 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jayci RathF | 22 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Maya KovacicG | 21 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Autumn McCallF | 20 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Abbey VallanceG | 18 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Missed the last game: Samantha Voll (30 min a game).
Drake
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mylea MonahanG | 28 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Anna BeckerG | 27 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Mya CrawfordG | 24 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Karis FinleyF | 20 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Quinn ViceF | 20 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Brooklin DaileyG | 19 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Lexi CarlsenG | 18 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Grace KnutsonG | 18 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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