Who will win Drake vs Omaha?
The model gives Drake a 77% chance to beat Omaha, with a projected score of Drake 70, Omaha 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Drake | |||||
| BeckerG · 27 min | 10.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 10+ 53% | |
| ViceF · 20 min | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 10+ 48% | |
| MonahanG · 28 min | 9.8 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 10+ 47% | |
| DaileyG · 19 min | 7.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 5+ 68% | |
 Omaha | |||||
| OlsenF · 26 min | 11.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 57% | |
| SkoffG · 30 min | 9.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| DolliverG · 23 min | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 5+ 63% | |
| DakC · 16 min | 5.3 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 5+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Anna Becker: Drake 74%Omaha 26%
The white mark is the call with her: Drake 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Drake without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | ||||
| Anna Becker | 1.3 | 74% | −3 | 70–62 |
| Quinn Vice | 1.1 | 75% | −2 | 70–61 |
| Grace Knutson | 0.8 | 75% | −2 | 70–61 |
| Lexi Carlsen | 0.6 | 76% | −1 | 70–61 |
Change is in Drake's win chance, in points. Scores read Drake, then Omaha. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Drake 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 76-71vs Cleveland St
- Nov 6L 49-74at Kansas
- Nov 3W 76-54vs E Illinois
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 67.0 and allowing 66.3
Omaha 1-2LWL
- Nov 9L 54-57vs W Illinois
- Nov 7W 69-34vs Avila
- Nov 3L 48-66at Kansas
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 57.0 and allowing 52.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Drake | Omaha | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.1 128th | 82.1 292nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.6 163rd | 97.9 251st |
| Possessions a game | 73.0 96th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.4% 254th | 42.5% 330th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.2% 159th | 44.4% 113th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 192nd | 24.2% 240th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.3% 66th | 32.6% 189th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 281st | 0.19 325th |
The widest gap: Drake's defense (163rd) against Omaha's offense (292nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Drake 34, Omaha 28
- First-half margin
- Drake by 5.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.2
- Projected second half
- Drake 36, Omaha 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Drake, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.3 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Omaha, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 22.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Drake
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mylea MonahanG | 28 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Anna BeckerG | 27 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Mya CrawfordG | 24 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Karis FinleyF | 20 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Quinn ViceF | 20 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Brooklin DaileyG | 19 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Lexi CarlsenG | 18 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Grace KnutsonG | 18 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
Omaha
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mya SkoffG | 30 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Cora OlsenF | 26 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Avril SmithF | 24 | 3.4 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 9+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Halle DolliverG | 23 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ava MarkowskiG | 18 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jade BrownF | 18 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 43% | |||||
| Nyaluak DakC | 16 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 48% | |||||
| Ani LeuG | 15 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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