Who will win Omaha vs Creighton?
The model gives Creighton a 99% chance to beat Omaha, with a projected score of Creighton 77, Omaha 48.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Creighton | |||||
| ZedikerG · 30 min | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 15+ 57% | |
| GessertG · 24 min | 11.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| MooreG · 22 min | 7.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 5+ 69% | |
| HeathcockG · 29 min | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 5+ 64% | |
 Omaha | |||||
| OlsenF · 25 min | 8.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 40% | |
| SkoffG · 28 min | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 5+ 69% | |
| DolliverG · 22 min | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5+ 52% | |
| DakC · 17 min | 4.8 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 5+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ava Zediker: Omaha 2%Creighton 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Creighton 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Creighton without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | ||||
| Ava Zediker | 3.7 | 98% | −1 | 50–75 |
| Nia Holloway | 3.5 | 98% | −1 | 49–75 |
| Allison Heathcock | 2.8 | 98% | −1 | 49–75 |
| Neleigh Gessert | 2.6 | 98% | −1 | 49–75 |
Change is in Creighton's win chance, in points. Scores read Omaha, then Creighton. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Omaha 1-2LWL
- Nov 9L 54-57vs W Illinois
- Nov 7W 69-34vs Avila
- Nov 3L 48-66at Kansas
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 57.0 and allowing 52.3
Creighton 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 49-54vs South Dakota
- Nov 9W 66-60at N Dakota St
- Nov 2W 73-71at S Dakota St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 62.7 and allowing 61.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Omaha | Creighton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.1 292nd | 98.0 89th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.9 251st | 82.9 43rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 285th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.5% 330th | 44.2% 264th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.4% 113th | 45.5% 174th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 240th | 20.9% 15th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 189th | 31.5% 250th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 325th | 0.23 62nd |
The widest gap: Creighton's defense (43rd) against Omaha's offense (292nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Omaha 21, Creighton 38
- First-half margin
- Creighton by 16.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.0
- Projected second half
- Omaha 27, Creighton 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Omaha, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 22.7 allowed
- Creighton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 26.3 scored, 26.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Omaha
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mya SkoffG | 28 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Cora OlsenF | 25 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Avril SmithF | 23 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Halle DolliverG | 22 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Ava MarkowskiG | 18 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jade BrownF | 18 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| Nyaluak DakC | 17 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
| Ani LeuG | 16 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Creighton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava ZedikerG | 30 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Allison HeathcockG | 29 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Neleigh GessertG | 24 | 11.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Nia HollowayF | 24 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Mya MooreG | 22 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Norah GessertG | 20 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kendall McGeeG | 17 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Kate AmelotteG | 13 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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