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Probable Stats / Women's / Wednesday, November 18

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Alcorn St at Nicholls

Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at David R. Stopher Gymnasium. Alcorn St our rank 325 · 1-1; Nicholls our rank 257 · 2-2.

Who will win Alcorn St vs Nicholls?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Nicholls a 69% chance to beat Alcorn State, with a projected score of Nicholls 64, Alcorn St 57.

To winNicholls 69%Alcorn St 31%
Projected score57–64Alcorn St, then Nicholls
Margin6.4Nicholls · no line posted
Total120.8no line posted
First half27–30Nicholls ahead 63%
Alcorn St by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Nicholls by 40Model: Nicholls by 6.4Alcorn St by 20Evenby 20Nicholls by 40Model: Nicholls by 6.4

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Nicholls
CurtisG · 36 min18.15.02.420+ 39%
MatthewsF · 23 min11.05.41.310+ 55%
HoofF · 30 min10.47.31.810+ 51%
BennettG · 21 min7.23.10.95+ 67%
Alcorn St
MorganG · 26 min9.62.80.910+ 46%
NelsonF · 29 min7.64.61.810+ 31%
SmithG · 23 min7.62.81.810+ 31%
JohnsonG · 24 min7.43.31.05+ 68%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Alcorn St 1-1LW

    1. Nov 11W 91-44vs Mississippi U for Women
    2. Nov 2L 38-80at Ole Miss
    Last 2
    1–1, scoring 64.5 and allowing 62.0

    Nicholls 2-2WLLW

    1. Nov 10W 83-40vs LSU Alexandria
    2. Nov 8L 48-74at Georgia
    3. Nov 5L 44-68at Iowa State
    4. Nov 2W 83-54vs Dillard
    Last 4
    2–2, scoring 64.5 and allowing 59.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Alcorn StNicholls
    Points scored per 100 possessions78.6 326th82.1 293rd
    Points allowed per 10098.9 276th95.2 199th
    Possessions a game71.6 219th71.7 211th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.1% 268th42.9% 317th
    Opponents' shooting44.6% 129th45.8% 197th
    Turnovers, share of possessions25.1% 283rd23.4% 174th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.5% 250th31.9% 228th
    Free throws per shot0.21 213th0.21 199th

    The widest gap: Nicholls's defense (199th) against Alcorn St's offense (326th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Alcorn St 27, Nicholls 30
    First-half margin
    Nicholls by 3.7
    First-half points, both teams
    57.3
    Projected second half
    Alcorn St 30, Nicholls 33
    Second-half points, both teams
    63.5
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Alcorn St, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 2 · 33.5 scored, 28.5 allowed
    Nicholls, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 4 · 30.8 scored, 25.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Alcorn St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Lauren NelsonF297.64.61.80.4
    10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 51%
    Jada MorganG269.62.80.90.5
    10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 36%
    Jazlyn JohnsonG247.43.31.00.7
    5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 49%
    Jae'la SmithG237.62.81.80.7
    10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 52%
    Dekyra MitchellG226.12.52.30.8
    5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49%
    Fatime SeckG194.02.40.90.7
    5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 48%
    Chrishunti WalkerF185.13.50.80.1
    5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 20%
    Frances AnyakudoF172.93.00.60.0
    5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 53%

    Nicholls

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Britiya CurtisG3618.15.02.42.6
    44% to play · 20+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 45%
    Anyra WilsonG315.73.13.30.4
    5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 41%
    Charnelle HoofF3010.47.31.80.2
    10+ pts 51% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 50%
    Laryn ScottF274.76.40.70.2
    5+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 16%
    Shelcie LeBlancG257.12.91.40.9
    5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 56%
    Jasmine MatthewsF2311.05.41.30.2
    10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 35%
    Danielle BennettG217.23.10.90.6
    5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 42%
    Tyanna StewartG184.82.21.00.3
    5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 27%

    Missed the last game: Britiya Curtis (40 min a game) and Makayla Charles (15 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Wed, Nov 18

    All games
    1. 5 PMprojected 64-70Syracuse at Harvard, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 70-68Georgia at Georgia Tech, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 71-63Iowa State at Northern Iowa, women's: game page
    4. 7 PMprojected 63-72Penn at Saint Joseph's, women's: game page
    5. 7 PMprojected 64-75Ole Miss at Ohio State, women's: game page
    6. 7:30 PMprojected 62-72St John's at Oklahoma St, women's: game page
    Alcorn St next: at Tulane, Fri, Nov 20 · 2%Nicholls next: at SMU, Sun, Nov 15 · 8%Alcorn St: schedule and oddsNicholls: schedule and odds