Pepperdine at Rice
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Tudor Fieldhouse. Pepperdine our rank 146 · 2-1; Rice our rank 71 · 4-0.
Who will win Pepperdine vs Rice?
The model gives Rice a 84% chance to beat Pepperdine, with a projected score of Rice 67, Pepperdine 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | |||||
| BattistonG · 34 min | 13.0 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| AlexisG · 33 min | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| FloresG · 24 min | 9.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 42% | |
| AdamsG · 33 min | 8.1 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 10+ 34% | |
| Pepperdine | |||||
| GuineyG · 32 min | 13.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 15+ 41% | |
| FalkG · 30 min | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 63% | |
| HarmonG · 26 min | 6.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5+ 61% | |
| MendelsonC · 24 min | 6.3 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Hailey Adams: Pepperdine 23%Rice 77%
The white mark is the call with her: Rice 84%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Rice without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | ||||
| Hailey Adams | 3.5 | 77% | −7 | 56–65 |
| Aniah Alexis | 2.6 | 79% | −5 | 56–66 |
| Louann Battiston | 2.2 | 80% | −4 | 55–66 |
| Lilly Taulelei | 1.9 | 80% | −4 | 55–66 |
| Pepperdine | ||||
| Elli Guiney | 2.7 | 89% | +5 | 53–68 |
| Lina Falk | 1.5 | 87% | +3 | 54–68 |
| Taija Sta. Maria | 0.8 | 86% | +2 | 54–67 |
| Seleh Harmon | 0.8 | 86% | +2 | 54–67 |
Change is in Rice's win chance, in points. Scores read Pepperdine, then Rice. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Pepperdine 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 83-65vs Cal State Dominguez Hills
- Nov 5L 54-58vs Santa Barbara
- Nov 2W 59-43at Portland St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 65.3 and allowing 55.3
Rice 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 71-46vs Texas Southern
- Nov 8W 73-60at Richmond
- Nov 6W 69-64vs Murray St
- Nov 2W 72-34vs Hou Christian
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 51.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pepperdine | Rice | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.2 214th | 95.1 114th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.2 80th | 83.3 48th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 71.5 225th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.8% 222nd | 46.3% 128th |
| Opponents' shooting | 40.6% 8th | 39.5% 1st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.7% 309th | 22.2% 74th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.1% 75th | 28.3% 354th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 142nd | 0.20 237th |
The widest gap: Rice's defense (48th) against Pepperdine's offense (214th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Pepperdine 25, Rice 32
- First-half margin
- Rice by 7.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 57.5
- Projected second half
- Pepperdine 29, Rice 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 63.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Pepperdine, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 26.7 allowed
- Rice, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 23.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Pepperdine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elli GuineyG | 32 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Lina FalkG | 30 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Taija Sta. MariaG | 29 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Seleh HarmonG | 26 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Maggie MendelsonC | 24 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 8+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Keandra KooritsG | 18 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Zoe ShanahanF | 13 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Evelyn MartynC | 10 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 60% | |||||
Rice
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louann BattistonG | 34 | 13.0 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Aniah AlexisG | 33 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Hailey AdamsG | 33 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 11+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Victoria FloresG | 24 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jordin BlackmonG | 21 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Lilly TauleleiF | 17 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 48% | |||||
| Myah HazeltonC | 15 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 58% | |||||
| Reychel DouglasG | 14 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
Missed the last game: Victoria Flores (26 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…