East Carolina at UNC Wilmington
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Trask Coliseum. East Carolina our rank 229 · 1-2; UNC Wilmington our rank 256 · 2-1.
Who will win East Carolina vs UNC Wilmington?
The model gives UNC Wilmington a 56% chance to beat East Carolina, with a projected score of UNC Wilmington 63, East Carolina 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Wilmington | |||||
| ThompsonG · 26 min | 11.1 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| DauerG · 29 min | 8.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| JohnsonG · 27 min | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 39% | |
| HicksG · 26 min | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 5+ 65% | |
| East Carolina | |||||
| HearpG · 28 min | 11.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| CoskunG · 30 min | 10.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| RickenbackerG · 24 min | 7.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 5+ 68% | |
| HiteG · 20 min | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Loghan Johnson: East Carolina 49%UNC Wilmington 51%
The white mark is the call with her: UNC Wilmington 56%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UNC Wilmington without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Wilmington | ||||
| Loghan Johnson | 1.6 | 51% | −5 | 62–62 |
| East Carolina | ||||
| Jayla Hearp | 0.9 | 60% | +4 | 60–63 |
| Jayda Holiman | 0.7 | 59% | +3 | 61–63 |
Change is in UNC Wilmington's win chance, in points. Scores read East Carolina, then UNC Wilmington. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
East Carolina 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 54-67vs High Point
- Nov 7L 49-82vs Liberty
- Nov 3W 61-45vs Charleston So
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 54.7 and allowing 64.7
UNC Wilmington 2-1WWL
- Nov 12L 48-65at Wake Forest
- Nov 7W 82-48vs NC Central
- Nov 3W 75-44vs Barton
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 68.3 and allowing 52.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| East Carolina | UNC Wilmington | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 85.0 263rd | 81.2 304th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.7 210th | 94.2 176th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.2% 337th | 45.2% 195th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.9% 208th | 46.6% 252nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.9% 280th | 23.8% 207th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.6% 249th | 32.6% 191st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 173rd | 0.20 241st |
The widest gap: East Carolina's defense (210th) against UNC Wilmington's offense (304th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- East Carolina 29, UNC Wilmington 30
- First-half margin
- UNC Wilmington by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.6
- Projected second half
- East Carolina 32, UNC Wilmington 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- East Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 25.0 scored, 29.7 allowed
- UNC Wilmington, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
East Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuana CoskunG | 30 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jayla HearpG | 28 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Mildred DibuaF | 27 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 46% | |||||
| Tristan RickenbackerG | 24 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Kendall SneedG | 24 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Rylie HiteG | 20 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jayda HolimanG | 19 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Olivia HilliardG | 16 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 38% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
UNC Wilmington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sienna DauerG | 29 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Loghan JohnsonG | 27 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Tiara ThompsonG | 26 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Kimmie HicksG | 26 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Naylee CortesF | 24 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Promise NjokuG | 20 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Leah KeyesG | 15 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Ebbony WilsonG | 11 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 26% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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