UNC Wilmington at Presbyterian
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at Templeton Center. UNC Wilmington our rank 256 · 2-1; Presbyterian our rank 353 · 0-3.
Who will win UNC Wilmington vs Presbyterian?
The model gives UNC Wilmington a 78% chance to beat Presbyterian, with a projected score of UNC Wilmington 67, Presbyterian 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Wilmington | |||||
| ThompsonG · 26 min | 11.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 10+ 59% | |
| DauerG · 28 min | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 41% | |
| JohnsonG · 26 min | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 41% | |
| HicksG · 26 min | 7.1 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 5+ 66% | |
| Presbyterian | |||||
| FloydG · 22 min | 11.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| LingerG · 28 min | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 45% | |
| ReevesG · 24 min | 7.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 5+ 68% | |
| HaddockG · 28 min | 6.8 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Loghan Johnson: UNC Wilmington 74%Presbyterian 26%
The white mark is the call with her: UNC Wilmington 78%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UNC Wilmington without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Wilmington | ||||
| Loghan Johnson | 1.6 | 74% | −4 | 66–58 |
Change is in UNC Wilmington's win chance, in points. Scores read UNC Wilmington, then Presbyterian. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UNC Wilmington 2-1WWL
- Nov 12L 48-65at Wake Forest
- Nov 7W 82-48vs NC Central
- Nov 3W 75-44vs Barton
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 68.3 and allowing 52.3
Presbyterian 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 54-87at Marquette
- Nov 5L 53-85at Wake Forest
- Nov 2L 50-58at UNC Greensboro
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 52.3 and allowing 76.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UNC Wilmington | Presbyterian | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 81.2 304th | 76.8 345th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.2 176th | 106.1 354th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 200th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.2% 195th | 44.8% 224th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.6% 252nd | 46.8% 259th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.8% 207th | 24.1% 229th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 191st | 32.7% 185th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 241st | 0.19 285th |
The widest gap: UNC Wilmington's defense (176th) against Presbyterian's offense (345th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UNC Wilmington 32, Presbyterian 27
- First-half margin
- UNC Wilmington by 5.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.9
- Projected second half
- UNC Wilmington 35, Presbyterian 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UNC Wilmington, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Presbyterian, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 24.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UNC Wilmington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sienna DauerG | 28 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Loghan JohnsonG | 26 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Tiara ThompsonG | 26 | 11.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Kimmie HicksG | 26 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Naylee CortesF | 24 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Promise NjokuG | 20 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Leah KeyesG | 16 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Ebbony WilsonG | 12 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Presbyterian
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretha LingerG | 28 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Alyssa FebresG | 28 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Krystal HaddockG | 28 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Azjah ReevesG | 24 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Yolanda FloydG | 22 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Yasmeen BrightwellG | 21 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Saoirse SmartF | 16 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
| Dylande InnocentF | 15 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 53% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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