UT Rio Grande at Rice
Women's · Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Tudor Fieldhouse. UT Rio Grande our rank 223 · 1-3; Rice our rank 71 · 4-0.
Who will win UT Rio Grande vs Rice?
The model gives Rice a 95% chance to beat UT Rio Grande Valley, with a projected score of Rice 74, UT Rio Grande 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | |||||
| BattistonG · 32 min | 13.4 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 15+ 39% | |
| FloresG · 23 min | 9.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 45% | |
| AlexisG · 32 min | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 10+ 45% | |
| AdamsG · 32 min | 8.4 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 10+ 36% | |
| UT Rio Grande | |||||
| McLaurinG · 27 min | 13.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 15+ 39% | |
| AarnioG · 32 min | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 10+ 41% | |
| WhitehairF · 16 min | 5.9 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 5+ 56% | |
| FimboF · 24 min | 5.8 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 5+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Hailey Adams: UT Rio Grande 9%Rice 91%
The white mark is the call with her: Rice 95%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Rice without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | ||||
| Hailey Adams | 3.5 | 91% | −4 | 55–72 |
| Aniah Alexis | 2.6 | 92% | −3 | 55–72 |
| Louann Battiston | 2.2 | 93% | −2 | 55–73 |
| Lilly Taulelei | 1.9 | 93% | −2 | 55–73 |
| UT Rio Grande | ||||
| Janette Aarnio | 0.6 | 95% | 0 | 53–74 |
Change is in Rice's win chance, in points. Scores read UT Rio Grande, then Rice. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UT Rio Grande 1-3WLLL
- Nov 11L 59-76vs Abilene Chrstn
- Nov 8L 39-68at Kansas St
- Nov 6L 56-68at South Dakota
- Nov 2W 114-47vs Arlington Baptist
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 67.0 and allowing 64.8
Rice 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 71-46vs Texas Southern
- Nov 8W 73-60at Richmond
- Nov 6W 69-64vs Murray St
- Nov 2W 72-34vs Hou Christian
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 51.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UT Rio Grande | Rice | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.8 204th | 95.1 114th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.6 264th | 83.3 48th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 71.5 225th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.8% 318th | 46.3% 128th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.3% 290th | 39.5% 1st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.0% 223rd | 22.2% 74th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 264th | 28.3% 354th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 45th | 0.20 237th |
The widest gap: Rice's defense (48th) against UT Rio Grande's offense (204th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UT Rio Grande 24, Rice 36
- First-half margin
- Rice by 11.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.4
- Projected second half
- UT Rio Grande 29, Rice 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UT Rio Grande, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.8 scored, 30.8 allowed
- Rice, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 23.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UT Rio Grande
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janette AarnioG | 32 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Kamryn McLaurinG | 27 | 13.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Lina FimboF | 24 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Erin MaguireG | 19 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Jessica BordersG | 18 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Elise HorneF | 17 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
| Gianna AngioletG | 17 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Rylie WhitehairF | 16 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Rice
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louann BattistonG | 32 | 13.4 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Aniah AlexisG | 32 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Hailey AdamsG | 32 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 11+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Victoria FloresG | 23 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Jordin BlackmonG | 20 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Lilly TauleleiF | 17 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 52% | |||||
| Myah HazeltonC | 16 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 41% | |||||
| Reychel DouglasG | 14 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
Missed the last game: Victoria Flores (26 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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