Who will win SMU vs Memphis?
The model gives Memphis a 57% chance to beat SMU, with a projected score of Memphis 64, SMU 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Memphis | |||||
| RichmondG · 37 min | 13.9 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| KelseyG · 24 min | 11.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| RichardsonG · 33 min | 11.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| WilliamsC · 30 min | 10.9 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 10+ 55% | |
 SMU | |||||
| Hagans Jr.G · 31 min | 15.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 15+ 54% | |
| JamesG · 21 min | 9.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 10+ 44% | |
| KingG · 20 min | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 32% | |
| KaneF · 23 min | 5.8 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Daejah Richmond: SMU 50%Memphis 50%
The white mark is the call with her: Memphis 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Memphis without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | ||||
| Daejah Richmond | 2.0 | 50% | −7 | 62–63 |
| Ainaya Williams | 1.8 | 51% | −6 | 62–63 |
| Destiny Thomas | 1.8 | 51% | −6 | 62–63 |
| Tamya Smith | 1.2 | 53% | −4 | 62–63 |
| SMU | ||||
| Grace Ezebilo | 1.9 | 63% | +6 | 61–64 |
| Mailien Rolf | 1.1 | 60% | +3 | 61–64 |
| Zahra King | 0.9 | 60% | +3 | 61–64 |
| Theresa Hagans Jr. | 0.9 | 60% | +3 | 61–64 |
Change is in Memphis's win chance, in points. Scores read SMU, then Memphis. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
SMU 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 69-50vs Long Island
- Nov 8W 78-65vs East Texas A&M
- Nov 5W 66-54vs Hampton
- Nov 3W 72-36vs Le Moyne
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 51.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SMU | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.1 216th | 90.3 172nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.3 82nd | 88.5 88th |
| Possessions a game | 72.8 110th | 72.9 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.1% 201st | 44.0% 274th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.8% 77th | 43.6% 66th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.0% 323rd | 23.9% 217th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.7% 36th | 32.8% 181st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 360th | 0.22 100th |
The widest gap: Memphis's defense (88th) against SMU's offense (216th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SMU 29, Memphis 30
- First-half margin
- Memphis by 1.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.3
- Projected second half
- SMU 32, Memphis 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
- Memphis, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 26.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theresa Hagans Jr.G | 31 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Mailien RolfG | 24 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Adja KaneF | 23 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Grace EzebiloF | 22 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 9+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Shania JamesG | 21 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Zahra KingG | 20 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Camille NesmithC | 19 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Zoe OsbyF | 17 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 47% to play · 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Missed the last game: Zoe Osby (20 min a game).
Memphis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejah RichmondG | 37 | 13.9 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jordan HunterG | 34 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Anjanae RichardsonG | 33 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Ainaya WilliamsC | 30 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Tierney KelseyG | 24 | 11.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Tamya SmithF | 23 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Destiny ThomasC | 22 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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