Who will win Wisconsin vs Auburn?
The model gives Wisconsin a 71% chance to beat Auburn, with a projected score of Wisconsin 68, Auburn 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wisconsin | |||||
| MallegniG · 24 min | 13.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 15+ 38% | |
| DealG · 26 min | 11.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 10+ 59% | |
| ShepleeG · 23 min | 9.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 43% | |
| CourthiauG · 25 min | 7.6 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 5+ 70% | |
 Auburn | |||||
| PetersonF · 24 min | 7.7 | 7.4 | 0.5 | 10+ 31% | |
| HarrisG · 26 min | 7.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 5+ 70% | |
| OshoF · 26 min | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 5+ 69% | |
| StotijnG · 24 min | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Addie Deal: Wisconsin 60%Auburn 40%
The white mark is the call with her: Wisconsin 71%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Wisconsin without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | ||||
| Addie Deal | 3.9 | 60% | −11 | 67–64 |
| Teagan Mallegni | 3.7 | 60% | −11 | 67–63 |
| Shay Bollin | 2.7 | 63% | −8 | 67–63 |
| Laci Steele | 2.5 | 64% | −7 | 67–63 |
| Auburn | ||||
| Jessica Peterson | 2.3 | 77% | +6 | 70–60 |
| Ja'Mia Harris | 2.0 | 76% | +5 | 69–61 |
| Danielle Osho | 1.8 | 76% | +5 | 69–61 |
| Quanirah Montague | 1.6 | 75% | +4 | 69–61 |
Change is in Wisconsin's win chance, in points. Scores read Wisconsin, then Auburn. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Wisconsin 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 86.8 and allowing 53.8
Auburn 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 74-56vs Furman
- Nov 5W 56-48vs Southern Miss
- Nov 2W 84-35vs Alabama St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 71.3 and allowing 46.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Wisconsin | Auburn | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.8 41st | 93.8 130th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 85.3 58th | 83.0 45th |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 129th | 71.2 265th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.7% 29th | 44.5% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.9% 144th | 40.1% 6th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.0% 58th | 25.7% 314th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 192nd | 35.1% 79th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 343rd | 0.28 4th |
The widest gap: Wisconsin's defense (58th) against Auburn's offense (130th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Wisconsin 33, Auburn 29
- First-half margin
- Wisconsin by 4.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.7
- Projected second half
- Wisconsin 36, Auburn 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Wisconsin, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.2 scored, 26.0 allowed
- Auburn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 22.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Wisconsin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addie DealG | 26 | 11.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Alicia CourthiauG | 25 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Teagan MallegniG | 24 | 13.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Adaline ShepleeG | 23 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Laci SteeleG | 21 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Shay BollinG | 20 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Nikki KersteinPG | 19 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Caia RoseG | 18 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
Auburn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle OshoF | 26 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ja'Mia HarrisG | 26 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Phoenix StotijnG | 24 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jessica PetersonF | 24 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 8+ reb 44% | |||||
| Sania RichardsonG | 20 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Quanirah MontagueF | 17 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Kaitlyn DuhonG | 16 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Ashley KnoxG | 16 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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