Alabama St 35, Auburn 84
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Neville Arena. Alabama St our rank 346 · 1-2; Auburn our rank 79 · 3-0.
Who won Alabama St vs Auburn?
Final: Auburn 84, Alabama State 35. Before tip-off the model gave Auburn a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 31.4 points for Auburn. Danielle Osho scored 16 for Auburn; Londyn Walker had 9 for Alabama St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jessica Peterson: Alabama St 2%Auburn 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Auburn 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Auburn without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | ||||
| Jessica Peterson | 2.3 | 98% | −1 | 61–91 |
| Ja'Mia Harris | 2.0 | 98% | −1 | 61–91 |
| Danielle Osho | 1.8 | 98% | −1 | 61–91 |
| Quanirah Montague | 1.6 | 98% | −1 | 61–91 |
Change is in Auburn's win chance, in points. Scores read Alabama St, then Auburn. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Alabama St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Auburn
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alabama St | Auburn | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 76.1 350th | 93.8 130th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.5 333rd | 83.0 45th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 71.2 265th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.2% 262nd | 44.5% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 202nd | 40.1% 6th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.9% 276th | 25.7% 314th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 118th | 35.1% 79th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 272nd | 0.28 4th |
The widest gap: Auburn's defense (45th) against Alabama St's offense (350th), of 363 teams.
First half
Auburn led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.9 points and the total by 7.1.
- At halftime
- Alabama St 21, Auburn 44
- Projected halftime score
- Alabama St 27, Auburn 45
- First-half margin
- Auburn by 18.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Alabama St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londyn WalkerG | 29 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alanah PoolerF | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ny'Keria FlowersG | 23 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Rachel GriffinF | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlese McClendonF | 19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| McKayla TaylorC | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Takya Walters-NormanG | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Elliott JessupF | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaleigh HeywoodG | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Auburn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle OshoF | 29 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Zahara BishopG | 24 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Sania RichardsonG | 23 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| Jessica PetersonF | 21 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Phoenix StotijnG | 20 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Ja'Mia HarrisG | 20 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ashley KnoxG | 20 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Savannah ScottC | 19 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Syriah DanielsG | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |