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Probable Stats / Women's / Saturday, November 14

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Alabama St at UTEP

Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Don Haskins Center. Alabama St our rank 346 · 1-2; UTEP our rank 293 · 2-1.

Who will win Alabama St vs UTEP?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives UTEP a 84% chance to beat Alabama State, with a projected score of UTEP 73, Alabama St 61.

To winUTEP 84%Alabama St 16%
Projected score61–73Alabama St, then UTEP
Margin12.3UTEP · no line posted
Total133.7no line posted
First half28–35UTEP ahead 75%
Alabama St by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30UTEP by 40Model: UTEP by 12.3Alabama St by 20Evenby 20UTEP by 40Model: UTEP by 12.3

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
UTEP
WarrenG · 24 min11.22.42.710+ 57%
Moses AmaniyoF · 25 min10.67.50.810+ 53%
JoaoF · 28 min10.27.81.710+ 50%
OlalekanF · 26 min9.96.41.010+ 48%
Alabama St
WalkerG · 28 min9.53.01.310+ 45%
PoolerF · 28 min9.04.11.310+ 41%
SimpsonG · 21 min8.33.60.910+ 35%
McClendonF · 27 min8.210.31.210+ 35%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Alabama St 1-2LLW

    1. Nov 10W 69-63vs Talladega
    2. Nov 7L 78-80at West Georgia
    3. Nov 2L 35-84at Auburn
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 60.7 and allowing 75.7

    UTEP 2-1WWL

    1. Nov 10L 50-69vs New Mexico St
    2. Nov 7W 74-68vs Incarnate Word
    3. Nov 2W 100-64vs Western New Mexico
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 74.7 and allowing 67.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Alabama StUTEP
    Points scored per 100 possessions76.1 350th86.1 250th
    Points allowed per 100102.5 333rd102.4 329th
    Possessions a game73.7 57th71.9 193rd
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.2% 262nd43.7% 292nd
    Opponents' shooting45.8% 202nd49.1% 347th
    Turnovers, share of possessions24.9% 276th22.7% 109th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses34.1% 118th33.8% 131st
    Free throws per shot0.20 272nd0.21 161st

    The widest gap: UTEP's offense (250th) against Alabama St's defense (333rd), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Alabama St 28, UTEP 35
    First-half margin
    UTEP by 7.1
    First-half points, both teams
    63.4
    Projected second half
    Alabama St 33, UTEP 38
    Second-half points, both teams
    70.3
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Alabama St, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 27.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
    UTEP, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 32.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Alabama St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Ny'Keria FlowersG286.93.42.71.0
    5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 49%
    Londyn WalkerG289.53.01.31.0
    10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 59%
    Alanah PoolerF289.04.11.30.8
    10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 50%
    Charlese McClendonF278.210.31.20.3
    10+ pts 35% · 11+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 33%
    Caylee SimpsonG218.33.60.90.5
    10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 40%
    Rachel GriffinF183.53.00.40.1
    5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 52%
    Elliott JessupF182.91.80.50.7
    5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45%
    Takya Walters-NormanG113.63.50.20.1
    5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 44%

    UTEP

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Isabel JoaoF2810.27.81.70.4
    10+ pts 50% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 47%
    Armanda SindalawaG279.63.42.60.6
    10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 43%
    Zainab OlalekanF269.96.41.00.2
    10+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 25%
    Mary Moses AmaniyoF2510.67.50.80.2
    10+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 18%
    Imani WarrenG2411.22.42.70.8
    10+ pts 57% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 50%
    Krista LukasevicaF186.73.50.90.1
    5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 24%
    Aolani WoldaiG155.12.21.20.4
    5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 33%
    Tatiana CollazoG154.01.00.70.5
    5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 26% · 1+ threes 39%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 14

    All games
    1. 2 PMprojected 62-70Rhode Island at St John's, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 69-67Wisconsin at Green Bay, women's: game page
    3. 3 PMprojected 73-62California at Santa Barbara, women's: game page
    4. 4 PMprojected 74-65North Carolina at Penn, women's: game page
    5. 4:30 PMprojected 72-62Nebraska vs Kansas, women's: game page
    6. 6 PMprojected 69-71Northwestern vs App State, women's: game page
    Alabama St next: at Mississippi St, Tue, Nov 17 · <1%UTEP next: vs Kansas City, Wed, Nov 18 · 49%Alabama St: schedule and oddsUTEP: schedule and odds