Alabama St at Mississippi St
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Humphrey Coliseum. Alabama St our rank 346 · 1-2; Mississippi St our rank 31 · 3-0.
Who will win Alabama St vs Mississippi St?
The model gives Mississippi State a >99% chance to beat Alabama State, with a projected score of Mississippi St 91, Alabama St 42.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | |||||
| NwaedoziF · 23 min | 17.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 63% | |
| FrancisF · 23 min | 12.6 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 15+ 34% | |
| MacktoonG · 17 min | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 51% | |
| SmallwoodG · 21 min | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| Alabama St | |||||
| WalkerG · 26 min | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 63% | |
| PoolerF · 25 min | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 5+ 59% | |
| SimpsonG · 20 min | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 5+ 57% | |
| McClendonF · 25 min | 5.8 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Favour Nwaedozi: Alabama St <1%Mississippi St >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Mississippi St >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Mississippi St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | ||||
| Favour Nwaedozi | 5.0 | >99% | 0 | 45–88 |
| Madison Francis | 4.6 | >99% | 0 | 45–89 |
| Reese Beaty | 3.8 | >99% | 0 | 44–89 |
| Aryss Macktoon | 2.5 | >99% | 0 | 44–90 |
Change is in Mississippi St's win chance, in points. Scores read Alabama St, then Mississippi St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Alabama St 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 69-63vs Talladega
- Nov 7L 78-80at West Georgia
- Nov 2L 35-84at Auburn
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 60.7 and allowing 75.7
Mississippi St 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 87.0 and allowing 50.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alabama St | Mississippi St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 76.1 350th | 103.1 49th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.5 333rd | 78.5 14th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 74.6 20th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.2% 262nd | 48.0% 50th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 202nd | 39.8% 4th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.9% 276th | 24.2% 243rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 118th | 36.8% 33rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 272nd | 0.19 322nd |
The widest gap: Mississippi St's defense (14th) against Alabama St's offense (350th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Alabama St 18, Mississippi St 46
- First-half margin
- Mississippi St by 27.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.2
- Projected second half
- Alabama St 25, Mississippi St 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Alabama St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
- Mississippi St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 22.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Alabama St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ny'Keria FlowersG | 26 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Londyn WalkerG | 26 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Charlese McClendonF | 25 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Alanah PoolerF | 25 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Caylee SimpsonG | 20 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Rachel GriffinF | 18 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 41% | |||||
| Elliott JessupF | 18 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Takya Walters-NormanG | 13 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
Mississippi St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reese BeatyG | 26 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 45% · 6+ ast 54% | |||||
| Favour NwaedoziF | 23 | 17.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 13+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Madison FrancisF | 23 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Cali SmallwoodG | 21 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Tootie LockettG | 20 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Macie PhiferG | 19 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Melissa GuilletG | 18 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Aryss MacktoonG | 17 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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