Mississippi St at Buffalo
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Broadview Arena. Mississippi St our rank 31 · 3-0; Buffalo our rank 266 · 2-1.
Who will win Mississippi St vs Buffalo?
The model gives Mississippi State a 99% chance to beat Buffalo, with a projected score of Mississippi St 84, Buffalo 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | |||||
| NwaedoziF · 24 min | 16.3 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 15+ 57% | |
| FrancisF · 23 min | 11.8 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 61% | |
| MacktoonG · 17 min | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 45% | |
| SmallwoodG · 21 min | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 37% | |
| Buffalo | |||||
| LaMonicaG · 28 min | 11.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 57% | |
| LucasF · 32 min | 10.5 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 52% | |
| WilsonG · 29 min | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 10+ 34% | |
| CorryG · 23 min | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Favour Nwaedozi: Mississippi St 97%Buffalo 3%
The white mark is the call with her: Mississippi St 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Mississippi St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | ||||
| Favour Nwaedozi | 5.0 | 97% | −2 | 82–59 |
| Madison Francis | 4.6 | 97% | −2 | 82–58 |
| Reese Beaty | 3.8 | 98% | −1 | 82–58 |
| Aryss Macktoon | 2.5 | 98% | −1 | 83–57 |
Change is in Mississippi St's win chance, in points. Scores read Mississippi St, then Buffalo. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mississippi St 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 87.0 and allowing 50.7
Buffalo 2-1WLW
- Nov 12W 67-60vs Sacramento St
- Nov 7L 62-86at Youngstown St
- Nov 2W 82-81vs Georgia St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 70.3 and allowing 75.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mississippi St | Buffalo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.1 49th | 86.7 234th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 78.5 14th | 100.0 302nd |
| Possessions a game | 74.6 20th | 74.1 43rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 50th | 48.3% 38th |
| Opponents' shooting | 39.8% 4th | 46.8% 259th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 243rd | 26.9% 343rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.8% 33rd | 31.8% 239th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 322nd | 0.25 15th |
The widest gap: Mississippi St's offense (49th) against Buffalo's defense (302nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mississippi St 41, Buffalo 25
- First-half margin
- Mississippi St by 16.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.5
- Projected second half
- Mississippi St 43, Buffalo 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mississippi St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 22.7 allowed
- Buffalo, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 32.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mississippi St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reese BeatyG | 27 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 42% · 5+ ast 58% | |||||
| Favour NwaedoziF | 24 | 16.3 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 12+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Madison FrancisF | 23 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Cali SmallwoodG | 21 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Tootie LockettG | 20 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Macie PhiferG | 19 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Melissa GuilletG | 18 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Aryss MacktoonG | 17 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
Buffalo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meg LucasF | 32 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 9+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Asia WilsonG | 29 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Ava LaMonicaG | 28 | 11.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Diann JacksonF | 24 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Ella CorryG | 23 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Ella WickstromG | 19 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Briana YoungG | 15 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Layla HearneG | 12 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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