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Georgia St 81, Buffalo 82

Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Broadview Arena. Georgia St our rank 238 · 1-3; Buffalo our rank 266 · 2-1.

Who won Georgia St vs Buffalo?

Final: Buffalo 82, Georgia State 81. Before tip-off the model gave Buffalo a 64% chance to win, with a projected margin of 4.9 points for Buffalo. Ava LaMonica scored 27 for Buffalo; Grace Lanier had 32 for Georgia St.

Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.

The call

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.
To winBuffalo 64%Georgia St 36%
Projected score77–82Georgia St, then Buffalo
Margin4.9Buffalo · no line posted
Total159.4no line posted
First half36–39Buffalo ahead 60%
Georgia St by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Buffalo by 30Model: Buffalo by 4.9Georgia St by 30by 10by 10Buffalo by 30Model: Buffalo by 4.9

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Georgia St

    No games yet this season: this is its first.

    Buffalo

    No games yet this season: this is its first.

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Georgia StBuffalo
    Points scored per 100 possessions88.2 214th86.7 234th
    Points allowed per 10099.8 300th100.0 302nd
    Possessions a game72.7 115th74.1 43rd
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)46.5% 118th48.3% 38th
    Opponents' shooting49.2% 350th46.8% 259th
    Turnovers, share of possessions22.3% 86th26.9% 343rd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.4% 304th31.8% 239th
    Free throws per shot0.20 274th0.25 15th

    The widest gap: Georgia St's offense (214th) against Buffalo's defense (302nd), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected before tip-off

    Ahead at halftime

    Buffalo led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 12.6.

    At halftime
    Georgia St 29, Buffalo 34
    Projected halftime score
    Georgia St 36, Buffalo 39
    First-half margin
    Buffalo by 2.8
    First-half points, both teams
    75.6
    Tied at the half
    4%

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Box score

    Each team's players, most minutes first

    Georgia St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Grace LanierG4032131
    Kenaya KlintmanG365221
    Aryelle StevensF2615311
    Ana Oliveira DiasG269380
    Danaeja Romero Ah SamG247510
    Aaliyah BaldwinG2011213
    Mariah KnightF112210
    Makennah AlexisG100100
    Jada CollinsF30100

    Buffalo

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Meg LucasF376870
    Ella CorryG3317421
    Asia WilsonG3211371
    Briana YoungG295730
    Ava LaMonicaG2727512
    Ella WickstromG256220
    Jadeah MarshallC1710100

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