Georgia St 81, Buffalo 82
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Broadview Arena. Georgia St our rank 238 · 1-3; Buffalo our rank 266 · 2-1.
Who won Georgia St vs Buffalo?
Final: Buffalo 82, Georgia State 81. Before tip-off the model gave Buffalo a 64% chance to win, with a projected margin of 4.9 points for Buffalo. Ava LaMonica scored 27 for Buffalo; Grace Lanier had 32 for Georgia St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Georgia St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Buffalo
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Georgia St | Buffalo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.2 214th | 86.7 234th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.8 300th | 100.0 302nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 74.1 43rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.5% 118th | 48.3% 38th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 350th | 46.8% 259th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.3% 86th | 26.9% 343rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 304th | 31.8% 239th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 274th | 0.25 15th |
The widest gap: Georgia St's offense (214th) against Buffalo's defense (302nd), of 363 teams.
First half
Buffalo led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 12.6.
- At halftime
- Georgia St 29, Buffalo 34
- Projected halftime score
- Georgia St 36, Buffalo 39
- First-half margin
- Buffalo by 2.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Georgia St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace LanierG | 40 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Kenaya KlintmanG | 36 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Aryelle StevensF | 26 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Ana Oliveira DiasG | 26 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Danaeja Romero Ah SamG | 24 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaliyah BaldwinG | 20 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Mariah KnightF | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Makennah AlexisG | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jada CollinsF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meg LucasF | 37 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Ella CorryG | 33 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Asia WilsonG | 32 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Briana YoungG | 29 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Ava LaMonicaG | 27 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Ella WickstromG | 25 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jadeah MarshallC | 17 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |