St Bonaventure at Buffalo
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Broadview Arena. St Bonaventure our rank 218 · 2-0; Buffalo our rank 266 · 2-1.
Who will win St Bonaventure vs Buffalo?
The model gives Buffalo a 52% chance to beat St. Bonaventure, with a projected score of Buffalo 70, St Bonaventure 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | |||||
| LaMonicaG · 31 min | 15.0 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 15+ 49% | |
| LucasF · 37 min | 14.4 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 15+ 45% | |
| WilsonG · 33 min | 10.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 10+ 54% | |
| CorryG · 24 min | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 38% | |
| St Bonaventure | |||||
| MacDonoughG · 34 min | 11.6 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 59% | |
| BoydF · 21 min | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 44% | |
| TrinkausF · 22 min | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 34% | |
| HayesF · 24 min | 7.9 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Brillana Boyd: St Bonaventure 45%Buffalo 55%
The white mark is the call with her: Buffalo 52%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Buffalo without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | ||||
| Brillana Boyd | 0.6 | 55% | +3 | 69–70 |
Change is in Buffalo's win chance, in points. Scores read St Bonaventure, then Buffalo. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
St Bonaventure 2-0WW
- Nov 11W 73-64vs Mercyhurst
- Nov 4W 68-56vs D'Youville
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 70.5 and allowing 60.0
Buffalo 2-1WLW
- Nov 12W 67-60vs Sacramento St
- Nov 7L 62-86at Youngstown St
- Nov 2W 82-81vs Georgia St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 70.3 and allowing 75.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Bonaventure | Buffalo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.3 190th | 86.7 234th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.7 269th | 100.0 302nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 74.1 43rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.7% 111th | 48.3% 38th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.1% 216th | 46.8% 259th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 189th | 26.9% 343rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 277th | 31.8% 239th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 47th | 0.25 15th |
The widest gap: St Bonaventure's offense (190th) against Buffalo's defense (302nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- St Bonaventure 33, Buffalo 33
- First-half margin
- Buffalo by 0.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.8
- Projected second half
- St Bonaventure 36, Buffalo 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- St Bonaventure, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 2 · 27.5 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Buffalo, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 32.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
St Bonaventure
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elyse MacDonoughG | 34 | 11.6 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Mackenzie PettinelliG | 28 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Ivona DjikanovicG | 26 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Kyla HayesF | 24 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Ella TrinkausF | 22 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Brillana BoydF | 21 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Diamond FieldsG | 17 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Kylie BuckleyF | 13 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Buffalo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meg LucasF | 37 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 12+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Asia WilsonG | 33 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Ava LaMonicaG | 31 | 15.0 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Diann JacksonF | 25 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ella CorryG | 24 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ella WickstromG | 20 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Briana YoungG | 14 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Layla HearneG | 10 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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