Who will win Miami vs Utah?
The model gives Miami a 79% chance to beat Utah, with a projected score of Miami 74, Utah 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami | |||||
| RavivG · 33 min | 13.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 15+ 41% | |
| AdamsG · 31 min | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| KimpsonG · 31 min | 10.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| ZodiaC · 19 min | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 32% | |
 Utah | |||||
| GirardiG · 30 min | 14.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 15+ 44% | |
| EvansF · 29 min | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 10+ 33% | |
| JonesG · 24 min | 7.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5+ 69% | |
| BradleyF · 19 min | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ahnay Adams: Miami 68%Utah 32%
The white mark is the call with her: Miami 79%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Miami without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | ||||
| Ahnay Adams | 3.9 | 68% | −11 | 72–66 |
| Gal Raviv | 3.9 | 68% | −11 | 72–66 |
| Amarachi Kimpson | 3.7 | 69% | −10 | 72–66 |
| Gianna Corbitt | 3.2 | 70% | −9 | 72–65 |
| Utah | ||||
| Lena Girardi | 3.3 | 86% | +7 | 75–62 |
| Filipa Barros | 3.2 | 85% | +6 | 75–62 |
| Chyra Evans | 2.9 | 85% | +6 | 75–62 |
| Laia Conesa | 1.9 | 83% | +4 | 75–63 |
Change is in Miami's win chance, in points. Scores read Miami, then Utah. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Miami 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 78-46vs Saint Peter's
- Nov 8W 79-39vs Stetson
- Nov 5W 79-63vs Jacksonville
- Nov 2W 75-48vs FAU
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 77.8 and allowing 49.0
Utah 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 65-47vs Bethune
- Nov 6W 72-63vs Colorado St
- Nov 3W 76-67vs E Washington
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 71.0 and allowing 59.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Miami | Utah | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.7 31st | 100.7 68th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 84.5 56th | 89.5 100th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 285th | 71.2 265th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 15th | 46.8% 103rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.0% 85th | 43.2% 51st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.4% 178th | 23.2% 153rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.1% 29th | 30.9% 286th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 216th | 0.21 161st |
The widest gap: Miami's offense (31st) against Utah's defense (100th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Miami 35, Utah 30
- First-half margin
- Miami by 5.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.1
- Projected second half
- Miami 38, Utah 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Miami, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 21.3 allowed
- Utah, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Miami
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gal RavivG | 33 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 59% · 5+ ast 42% | |||||
| Amarachi KimpsonG | 31 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ahnay AdamsG | 31 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Gianna CorbittF | 21 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jess-Mine ZodiaC | 19 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Natalie WetzelF | 18 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Dayana MendesG | 16 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Anna LiepinaF | 16 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lena GirardiG | 30 | 14.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Chyra EvansF | 29 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Filipa BarrosG | 29 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Laia ConesaG | 28 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Peyton JonesG | 24 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Olivia BradleyF | 19 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Rylee LittleF | 17 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Evelina OttoF | 17 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
Missed the last game: Olivia Bradley (23 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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