Who will win LMU vs UNLV?
The model gives UNLV a 64% chance to beat Loyola Marymount, with a projected score of UNLV 71, LMU 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UNLV | |||||
| LottG · 34 min | 15.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 15+ 53% | |
| RolandF · 30 min | 12.5 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 10+ 65% | |
| ConstantG · 29 min | 9.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 10+ 47% | |
| WashenitzG · 24 min | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 33% | |
 LMU | |||||
| HernandezF · 22 min | 11.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| NordstromG · 26 min | 11.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| JonesF · 21 min | 9.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 42% | |
| PowellG · 19 min | 9.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Meadow Roland: LMU 47%UNLV 53%
The white mark is the call with her: UNLV 64%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UNLV without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | ||||
| Meadow Roland | 3.4 | 53% | −11 | 68–69 |
| Jasmyn Lott | 2.4 | 56% | −8 | 68–70 |
| Marley Washenitz | 2.2 | 57% | −7 | 68–70 |
| Norah Moo | 1.8 | 58% | −6 | 68–70 |
| LMU | ||||
| Maya Hernandez | 2.8 | 72% | +8 | 65–72 |
| Shawnee Nordstrom | 1.8 | 69% | +5 | 66–72 |
| Kayla Jones | 1.6 | 68% | +4 | 66–72 |
| Danae Powell | 1.5 | 68% | +4 | 66–72 |
Change is in UNLV's win chance, in points. Scores read LMU, then UNLV. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
LMU 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 118-37vs La Sierra
- Nov 6W 70-45at Utah State
- Nov 2W 89-64vs Nevada
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 92.3 and allowing 48.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| LMU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.3 88th | 98.0 90th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.6 118th | 90.1 110th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.9% 99th | 43.3% 304th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 226th | 45.7% 192nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.5% 100th | 24.5% 260th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 125th | 35.5% 57th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 140th | 0.23 81st |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- LMU 31, UNLV 34
- First-half margin
- UNLV by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.3
- Projected second half
- LMU 35, UNLV 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- LMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
- UNLV, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
LMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee NordstromG | 26 | 11.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Maya HernandezF | 22 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Kayla JonesF | 21 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Allison ClarkeG | 21 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ivana KrajinaG | 20 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 38% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Danae PowellG | 19 | 9.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Sarah DengG | 19 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Ali'a MatavaoF | 14 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
UNLV
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmyn LottG | 34 | 15.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Meadow RolandF | 30 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 8+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jayla ConstantG | 29 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Norah MooF | 26 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Marley WashenitzG | 24 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Trystan JamesF | 22 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Bergan KinnebrewG | 22 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Keonni LewisG | 10 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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