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Probable Stats / Women's / Wednesday, November 25

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Arkansas v James Madison

Women's · Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Viejas Arena. Arkansas our rank 108 · 4-0; James Madison our rank 53 · 2-2.

Who will win Arkansas vs James Madison?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives James Madison a 85% chance to beat Arkansas, with a projected score of James Madison 77, Arkansas 65.

To winJames Madison 85%Arkansas 15%
Projected score65–77Arkansas, then James Madison
Margin12.3James Madison · no line posted
Total141.5no line posted
First half30–37James Madison ahead 75%
Arkansas by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30James Madison by 40Model: James Madison by 12.3Arkansas by 20Evenby 20James Madison by 40Model: James Madison by 12.3

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
James Madison
RobinsonG · 29 min10.82.72.610+ 54%
MooreF · 22 min10.56.70.710+ 52%
StephensonG · 24 min9.52.13.510+ 45%
McDonoughF · 19 min7.34.10.55+ 68%
Arkansas
RobinsonG · 29 min9.73.22.210+ 46%
Thomas-HarrisG · 23 min9.76.50.510+ 46%
PrestridgeG · 20 min9.14.21.510+ 42%
TrammellF · 22 min8.52.40.310+ 37%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Bree Robinson: Arkansas 23%James Madison 77%

The white mark is the call with her: James Madison 85%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsJames Madison without herChangeProjected score
James Madison
Bree Robinson3.577%−866–75
Trinity Moore3.078%−766–75
Delilah Soltys2.579%−666–76
Zakiya Stephenson2.380%−566–76
Arkansas
D'Asia Thomas-Harris1.688%+364–78
Emily Robinson1.587%+264–78
Jianna Morris1.487%+264–78
Beautiful Waheed1.487%+264–78

Change is in James Madison's win chance, in points. Scores read Arkansas, then James Madison. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Arkansas 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 12W 95-90vs AR-Pine Bluff
    2. Nov 9W 89-81vs Kansas City
    3. Nov 6W 89-59vs N'Western St
    4. Nov 2W 127-48vs LSU N Orleans
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 100.0 and allowing 69.5

    James Madison 2-2LWLW

    1. Nov 11W 77-61vs Navy
    2. Nov 8L 43-59at Virginia Tech
    3. Nov 5W 77-38vs C Connecticut
    4. Nov 2L 52-59at Miami OH
    Last 4
    2–2, scoring 62.2 and allowing 54.2

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    ArkansasJames Madison
    Points scored per 100 possessions97.0 99th98.9 82nd
    Points allowed per 10092.7 144th81.3 29th
    Possessions a game77.3 1st71.4 234th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.5% 245th45.4% 183rd
    Opponents' shooting47.2% 284th42.2% 22nd
    Turnovers, share of possessions23.3% 168th23.2% 162nd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses37.6% 22nd34.4% 101st
    Free throws per shot0.21 170th0.16 356th

    The widest gap: James Madison's defense (29th) against Arkansas's offense (99th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Arkansas 30, James Madison 37
    First-half margin
    James Madison by 7.1
    First-half points, both teams
    67.1
    Projected second half
    Arkansas 35, James Madison 40
    Second-half points, both teams
    74.4
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Arkansas, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 51.5 scored, 33.5 allowed
    James Madison, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 4 · 27.8 scored, 27.2 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Arkansas

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Emily RobinsonG299.73.22.21.2
    10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 61%
    Jianna MorrisG247.92.11.31.1
    10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 60%
    Grace McCallopG235.02.71.80.4
    5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 50%
    D'Asia Thomas-HarrisG239.76.50.50.2
    10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 21%
    Daniah TrammellF228.52.40.30.4
    10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 30%
    Whitley RogersG208.32.41.71.1
    51% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 49%
    Kyiah PrestridgeG209.14.21.50.9
    10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 56%
    Kateri PooleG184.61.71.40.8
    5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 52%

    Missed the last game: Whitley Rogers (22 min a game).

    James Madison

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Bree RobinsonG2910.82.72.61.1
    10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 46%
    Zakiya StephensonG249.52.13.51.6
    10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 46%
    Maddie LeachG245.62.71.90.6
    5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 55%
    Delilah SoltysG245.85.21.40.6
    5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44%
    Trinity MooreF2210.56.70.70.9
    10+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 54%
    Grace McDonoughF197.34.10.50.1
    5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 54%
    Trynce TaylorF186.74.80.90.2
    5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 22%
    Ja'Quoia Jones-BrownG187.03.71.00.6
    5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 43%

    Missed the last game: Brianna McLeod (17 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Wed, Nov 25

    All games
    1. 12 PMprojected 76-75Murray St at Purdue, women's: game page
    2. 1:30 PMprojected 70-66Arizona vs G Washington, women's: game page
    3. 1:30 PMprojected 68-62Wisconsin vs Auburn, women's: game page
    4. 3 PMprojected 67-71LMU at UNLV, women's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 74-64Miami vs Utah, women's: game page
    6. 5 PMprojected 64-70Santa Barbara at Portland, women's: game page
    Arkansas next: at Little Rock, Mon, Nov 16 · 75%James Madison next: vs East Carolina, Sun, Nov 15 · 99%Arkansas: schedule and oddsJames Madison: schedule and odds