Santa Barbara at Portland
Women's · Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Chiles Center. Santa Barbara our rank 98 · 3-0; Portland our rank 89 · 2-2.
Who will win Santa Barbara vs Portland?
The model gives Portland a 67% chance to beat UC Santa Barbara, with a projected score of Portland 70, Santa Barbara 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland | |||||
| AnanievG · 26 min | 9.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 10+ 46% | |
| MogelG · 23 min | 9.5 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| ManganG · 22 min | 9.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 10+ 41% | |
| SpearF · 20 min | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 33% | |
| Santa Barbara | |||||
| BorterF · 29 min | 12.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| Zonzon-HuygheG · 28 min | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 10+ 48% | |
| FloresG · 21 min | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 41% | |
| NaroG · 28 min | 8.2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dyani Ananiev: Santa Barbara 39%Portland 61%
The white mark is the call with her: Portland 67%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Portland without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland | ||||
| Dyani Ananiev | 2.2 | 61% | −6 | 65–69 |
| Julia Dalan | 1.7 | 62% | −5 | 65–69 |
| Lainey Spear | 1.4 | 63% | −4 | 65–69 |
| Florence Dallow | 1.4 | 63% | −4 | 65–69 |
| Santa Barbara | ||||
| Zoe Borter | 2.3 | 73% | +6 | 63–71 |
| Naomy Zonzon-Huyghe | 1.8 | 72% | +5 | 63–71 |
| Olivia Anderson | 1.8 | 72% | +5 | 63–71 |
| Maddie Naro | 1.4 | 71% | +4 | 64–71 |
Change is in Portland's win chance, in points. Scores read Santa Barbara, then Portland. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Santa Barbara 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 92-48vs Seattle U
- Nov 5W 58-54at Pepperdine
- Nov 3W 101-26vs UC Santa Cruz
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.7 and allowing 42.7
Portland 2-2WLLW
- Nov 11W 90-33vs Warner Pacific
- Nov 8L 65-75at Montana St
- Nov 5L 64-74at BYU
- Nov 2W 107-29vs Willamette
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 81.5 and allowing 52.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Santa Barbara | Portland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.6 92nd | 96.4 103rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.7 120th | 88.0 75th |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 334th | 73.6 65th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 18th | 45.8% 155th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 99th | 43.1% 45th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.4% 91st | 24.3% 252nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.0% 80th | 34.4% 101st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 314th | 0.23 90th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Santa Barbara 30, Portland 33
- First-half margin
- Portland by 3.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.6
- Projected second half
- Santa Barbara 34, Portland 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Santa Barbara, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
- Portland, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 45.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Santa Barbara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe BorterF | 29 | 12.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Maddie NaroG | 28 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 48% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Naomy Zonzon-HuygheG | 28 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Karisma FloresG | 21 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Nicole SteinerF | 21 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Chauncey AndersenG | 18 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Mauriana Hashemian-OrrG | 17 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Olivia AndersonF | 16 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Portland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyani AnanievG | 26 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Rhyan MogelG | 23 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Sara ManganG | 22 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Lainey SpearF | 20 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Florence DallowG | 20 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Julia DalanC | 20 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Tiffany BarbosaG | 14 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Goundo Diakite BayoF | 13 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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