Who will win Pacific vs Texas St?
The model gives Texas State a 63% chance to beat Pacific, with a projected score of Texas St 69, Pacific 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas St | |||||
| BurksG · 29 min | 17.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 64% | |
| HendersonG · 30 min | 17.1 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 15+ 61% | |
| AndersonF · 21 min | 11.8 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| CeppellottiF · 30 min | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 45% | |
 Pacific | |||||
| MindermannG · 29 min | 11.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| RiveraG · 24 min | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| NworieC · 24 min | 8.5 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 37% | |
| DyerG · 20 min | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Crystal Henderson: Pacific 43%Texas St 57%
The white mark is the call with her: Texas St 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Texas St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | ||||
| Crystal Henderson | 1.8 | 57% | −6 | 66–68 |
| Kyra Anderson | 1.4 | 59% | −4 | 66–68 |
| Lay Fantroy | 1.4 | 59% | −4 | 65–68 |
| Saniya Burks | 1.1 | 60% | −3 | 65–69 |
| Pacific | ||||
| Victoria Rivera | 1.8 | 68% | +5 | 64–70 |
| JoJo Nworie | 1.8 | 68% | +5 | 64–70 |
| Yana Karamfilova | 1.0 | 66% | +3 | 64–70 |
| Sophia Mindermann | 0.8 | 65% | +2 | 64–69 |
Change is in Texas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Pacific, then Texas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Pacific 1-1WL
- Nov 5L 54-75at Washington
- Nov 2W 105-42vs Simpson (CA)
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 79.5 and allowing 58.5
Texas St 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 106-51at Chicago St
- Nov 4W 69-51vs Long Island
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 87.5 and allowing 51.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pacific | Texas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.4 157th | 92.3 147th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.8 147th | 93.4 158th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.3% 187th | 49.9% 12th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.6% 129th | 45.3% 160th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 248th | 23.1% 143rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 194th | 34.3% 110th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 199th | 0.23 74th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Pacific 30, Texas St 33
- First-half margin
- Texas St by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Projected second half
- Pacific 34, Texas St 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Pacific, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.5 scored, 28.5 allowed
- Texas St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 46.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Pacific
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia MindermannG | 29 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Stella SzaboG | 26 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Victoria RiveraG | 24 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| JoJo NworieC | 24 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Yana KaramfilovaF | 21 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Jordyn DyerG | 20 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| LaMiracle LebonF | 19 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Liv YergensenG | 16 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Texas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia CeppellottiF | 30 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Crystal HendersonG | 30 | 17.1 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 56% | |||||
| Saniya BurksG | 29 | 17.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 55% · 3+ threes 47% | |||||
| Lay FantroyG | 22 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Kyra AndersonF | 21 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 55% | |||||
| Hayden HearstF | 15 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Addison CarrC | 14 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Emma PiqueG | 13 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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