Texas A&M-CC at Texas St
Women's · Friday, November 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET at Strahan Arena at the University Events Center. Texas A&M-CC our rank 341 · 1-1; Texas St our rank 152 · 2-0.
Who will win Texas A&M-CC vs Texas St?
The model gives Texas State a 96% chance to beat Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, with a projected score of Texas St 76, Texas A&M-CC 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | |||||
| BurksG · 27 min | 18.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 20+ 39% | |
| HendersonG · 28 min | 17.5 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 15+ 63% | |
| AndersonF · 21 min | 12.8 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| CeppellottiF · 28 min | 9.7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 46% | |
| Texas A&M-CC | |||||
| Frances WillisG · 25 min | 7.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 5+ 70% | |
| WilliamsF · 22 min | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 5+ 57% | |
| WalkerG · 21 min | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 5+ 57% | |
| MolderG · 25 min | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 5+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Crystal Henderson: Texas A&M-CC 6%Texas St 94%
The white mark is the call with her: Texas St 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Texas St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | ||||
| Crystal Henderson | 1.8 | 94% | −2 | 55–75 |
| Kyra Anderson | 1.4 | 94% | −2 | 55–76 |
| Lay Fantroy | 1.4 | 94% | −2 | 55–76 |
| Saniya Burks | 1.1 | 95% | −1 | 55–76 |
Change is in Texas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas A&M-CC, then Texas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas A&M-CC 1-1WL
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 58.0 and allowing 74.0
Texas St 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 106-51at Chicago St
- Nov 4W 69-51vs Long Island
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 87.5 and allowing 51.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas A&M-CC | Texas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.8 324th | 92.3 147th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.1 326th | 93.4 158th |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 219th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.7% 294th | 49.9% 12th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 343rd | 45.3% 160th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.5% 258th | 23.1% 143rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 236th | 34.3% 110th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 290th | 0.23 74th |
The widest gap: Texas St's offense (147th) against Texas A&M-CC's defense (326th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas A&M-CC 25, Texas St 37
- First-half margin
- Texas St by 12.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.9
- Projected second half
- Texas A&M-CC 30, Texas St 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas A&M-CC, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 26.0 scored, 31.5 allowed
- Texas St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 46.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas A&M-CC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Frances WillisG | 25 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Sille-Liis MolderG | 25 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Naiya CarneyG | 25 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Chelsy SingletonG | 22 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Rayna WilliamsF | 22 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Asha WalkerG | 21 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Caitlin LordF | 17 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Lori ZlatoperF | 16 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Texas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia CeppellottiF | 28 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Crystal HendersonG | 28 | 17.5 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 57% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Saniya BurksG | 27 | 18.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 46% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Lay FantroyG | 21 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Kyra AndersonF | 21 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 48% | |||||
| Hayden HearstF | 15 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Addison CarrC | 15 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Emma PiqueG | 14 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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