Texas St at Incarnate Word
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at McDermott Center. Texas St our rank 152 · 2-0; Incarnate Word our rank 259 · 1-2.
Who will win Texas St vs Incarnate Word?
The model gives Texas State a 68% chance to beat Incarnate Word, with a projected score of Texas St 71, Incarnate Word 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | |||||
| BurksG · 28 min | 17.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 20+ 38% | |
| HendersonG · 29 min | 17.4 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 15+ 63% | |
| AndersonF · 21 min | 12.1 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 10+ 63% | |
| CeppellottiF · 30 min | 9.7 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 46% | |
| Incarnate Word | |||||
| CoxG · 22 min | 11.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| McGrewG · 33 min | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 54% | |
| BorgstadtF · 26 min | 9.4 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 43% | |
| HoltonF · 31 min | 9.0 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 10+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Crystal Henderson: Texas St 63%Incarnate Word 37%
The white mark is the call with her: Texas St 68%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Texas St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | ||||
| Crystal Henderson | 1.8 | 63% | −5 | 71–66 |
| Kyra Anderson | 1.4 | 64% | −4 | 71–66 |
| Lay Fantroy | 1.4 | 64% | −4 | 71–66 |
| Saniya Burks | 1.1 | 65% | −3 | 71–66 |
Change is in Texas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas St, then Incarnate Word. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas St 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 106-51at Chicago St
- Nov 4W 69-51vs Long Island
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 87.5 and allowing 51.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas St | Incarnate Word | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.3 147th | 88.8 202nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.4 158th | 101.9 323rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 135th | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 12th | 46.9% 102nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 160th | 47.4% 292nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 143rd | 23.4% 173rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.3% 110th | 29.6% 330th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 74th | 0.28 5th |
The widest gap: Texas St's offense (147th) against Incarnate Word's defense (323rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas St 34, Incarnate Word 31
- First-half margin
- Texas St by 3.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.9
- Projected second half
- Texas St 37, Incarnate Word 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 46.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
- Incarnate Word, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 30.3 scored, 35.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia CeppellottiF | 30 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Crystal HendersonG | 29 | 17.4 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Saniya BurksG | 28 | 17.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.8 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Lay FantroyG | 22 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Kyra AndersonF | 21 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 56% | |||||
| Hayden HearstF | 15 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Addison CarrC | 14 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Emma PiqueG | 13 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Incarnate Word
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwendlyn McGrewG | 33 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| A'Maya HoltonF | 31 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Morgan BorgstadtF | 26 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Zaviyana MadisonG | 24 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Kayanna CoxG | 22 | 11.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| N'Kiyah BurgeF | 21 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Madison WilliamsG | 16 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2+ reb 36% · 2+ ast 20% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Destiny WhitakerG | 11 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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