Incarnate Word at North Texas
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at The Super Pit. Incarnate Word our rank 259 · 1-2; North Texas our rank 151 · 2-1.
Who will win Incarnate Word vs North Texas?
The model gives North Texas a 87% chance to beat Incarnate Word, with a projected score of North Texas 76, Incarnate Word 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | |||||
| SpencerG · 29 min | 11.1 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| BarberG · 26 min | 10.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 50% | |
| EsenabhaluF · 26 min | 9.2 | 12.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 42% | |
| MartinG · 21 min | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 10+ 41% | |
| Incarnate Word | |||||
| CoxG · 21 min | 11.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| McGrewG · 32 min | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 48% | |
| BorgstadtF · 26 min | 8.7 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 38% | |
| HoltonF · 30 min | 8.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Otaifo Esenabhalu: Incarnate Word 16%North Texas 84%
The white mark is the call with her: North Texas 87%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | North Texas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | ||||
| Otaifo Esenabhalu | 1.3 | 84% | −3 | 62–75 |
| Kalysta Martin | 1.3 | 85% | −2 | 62–75 |
| Chania Price | 1.1 | 85% | −2 | 62–75 |
| Cherie Spencer | 1.0 | 85% | −2 | 62–75 |
Change is in North Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read Incarnate Word, then North Texas. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Incarnate Word 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 60.7 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
North Texas 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 66-57vs Hou Christian
- Nov 5L 57-73at San Diego St
- Nov 2W 101-48vs Newman
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.7 and allowing 59.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Incarnate Word | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.8 202nd | 92.0 152nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.9 323rd | 92.9 149th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 72.9 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.9% 102nd | 42.5% 326th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 292nd | 46.1% 217th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.4% 173rd | 22.5% 95th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 330th | 34.2% 114th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 5th | 0.23 83rd |
The widest gap: North Texas's offense (152nd) against Incarnate Word's defense (323rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Incarnate Word 28, North Texas 37
- First-half margin
- North Texas by 8.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.0
- Projected second half
- Incarnate Word 33, North Texas 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Incarnate Word, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 30.3 scored, 35.0 allowed
- North Texas, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Incarnate Word
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwendlyn McGrewG | 32 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| A'Maya HoltonF | 30 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Morgan BorgstadtF | 26 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Zaviyana MadisonG | 24 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Kayanna CoxG | 21 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| N'Kiyah BurgeF | 21 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Madison WilliamsG | 16 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2+ reb 35% · 2+ ast 18% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Destiny WhitakerG | 12 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
North Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherie SpencerG | 29 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Otaifo EsenabhaluF | 26 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 12+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| KaMyra BarberG | 26 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Chania PriceG | 26 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Kalysta MartinG | 21 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Kyndal GrahamG | 17 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Kendall MosleyG | 14 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Taylor RietveldF | 14 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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