North Texas v Arkansas St
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Comerica Center. North Texas our rank 151 · 2-1; Arkansas St our rank 199 · 0-3.
Who will win North Texas vs Arkansas St?
The model gives North Texas a 70% chance to beat Arkansas State, with a projected score of North Texas 73, Arkansas St 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | |||||
| SpencerG · 29 min | 11.0 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| BarberG · 26 min | 10.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| EsenabhaluF · 26 min | 9.0 | 12.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| MartinG · 21 min | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 10+ 39% | |
| Arkansas St | |||||
| RoseG · 34 min | 17.9 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 20+ 38% | |
| GrayG · 32 min | 12.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 64% | |
| MarshG · 19 min | 9.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 42% | |
| FriersonG · 24 min | 7.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Otaifo Esenabhalu: North Texas 66%Arkansas St 34%
The white mark is the call with her: North Texas 70%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | North Texas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | ||||
| Otaifo Esenabhalu | 1.3 | 66% | −4 | 72–67 |
| Kalysta Martin | 1.3 | 66% | −4 | 72–67 |
| Chania Price | 1.1 | 67% | −3 | 72–67 |
| Cherie Spencer | 1.0 | 67% | −3 | 72–67 |
| Arkansas St | ||||
| Crislyn Rose | 2.5 | 76% | +6 | 74–65 |
Change is in North Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read North Texas, then Arkansas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
North Texas 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 66-57vs Hou Christian
- Nov 5L 57-73at San Diego St
- Nov 2W 101-48vs Newman
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.7 and allowing 59.3
Arkansas St 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 61-63at Loyola Chicago
- Nov 7L 59-89at FGCU
- Nov 2L 74-84at Ball State
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 64.7 and allowing 78.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Texas | Arkansas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.0 152nd | 86.5 240th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.9 149th | 93.7 166th |
| Possessions a game | 72.9 103rd | 76.4 4th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.5% 326th | 42.6% 325th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.1% 217th | 45.4% 170th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.5% 95th | 22.5% 97th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 114th | 30.0% 315th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 83rd | 0.21 166th |
The widest gap: North Texas's defense (149th) against Arkansas St's offense (240th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- North Texas 35, Arkansas St 31
- First-half margin
- North Texas by 3.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.7
- Projected second half
- North Texas 38, Arkansas St 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- North Texas, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Arkansas St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
North Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherie SpencerG | 29 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Otaifo EsenabhaluF | 26 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 12+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| KaMyra BarberG | 26 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Chania PriceG | 26 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Kalysta MartinG | 21 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Kyndal GrahamG | 17 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Kendall MosleyG | 14 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Taylor RietveldF | 14 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Arkansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crislyn RoseG | 34 | 17.9 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 49% · 5+ ast 56% | |||||
| Amina GrayG | 32 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jermesha FriersonG | 24 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Audreonia BensonG | 21 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Angela CarrollF | 20 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 55% | |||||
| Maya ChocanoG | 19 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Monica MarshG | 19 | 9.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jaidyn ElamG | 15 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Monica Marsh (22 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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