South Alabama at Memphis
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Elma Roane Fieldhouse. South Alabama our rank 290 · 1-3; Memphis our rank 127 · 4-0.
Who will win South Alabama vs Memphis?
The model gives Memphis a 93% chance to beat South Alabama, with a projected score of Memphis 77, South Alabama 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | |||||
| RichmondG · 34 min | 14.6 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 15+ 47% | |
| KelseyG · 23 min | 12.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| RichardsonG · 31 min | 11.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| WilliamsC · 28 min | 11.8 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 10+ 61% | |
| South Alabama | |||||
| WilsonG · 32 min | 15.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 15+ 52% | |
| CejaF · 34 min | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 54% | |
| CoffilG · 25 min | 10.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| OrianegbenaF · 24 min | 4.3 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 5+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Daejah Richmond: South Alabama 9%Memphis 91%
The white mark is the call with her: Memphis 93%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Memphis without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | ||||
| Daejah Richmond | 2.0 | 91% | −2 | 59–76 |
| Ainaya Williams | 1.8 | 91% | −2 | 59–76 |
| Destiny Thomas | 1.8 | 91% | −2 | 59–76 |
| Tamya Smith | 1.2 | 92% | −1 | 59–76 |
Change is in Memphis's win chance, in points. Scores read South Alabama, then Memphis. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Alabama | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.5 239th | 90.3 172nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.4 328th | 88.5 88th |
| Possessions a game | 73.0 96th | 72.9 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.3% 334th | 44.0% 274th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 223rd | 43.6% 66th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.8% 51st | 23.9% 217th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 192nd | 32.8% 181st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 95th | 0.22 100th |
The widest gap: Memphis's offense (172nd) against South Alabama's defense (328th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- South Alabama 27, Memphis 37
- First-half margin
- Memphis by 10.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.8
- Projected second half
- South Alabama 31, Memphis 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Alabama, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 30.5 scored, 35.8 allowed
- Memphis, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 26.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
South Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julieta CejaF | 34 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| CJ WilsonG | 32 | 15.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 2+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Terren CoffilG | 25 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Deborah OrianegbenaF | 24 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 8+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Cam GolstonG | 23 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Jaida RedwineG | 19 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Jolie MantzG | 17 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Aroa MangasG | 12 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 2+ reb 26% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Memphis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejah RichmondG | 34 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jordan HunterG | 32 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Anjanae RichardsonG | 31 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Ainaya WilliamsC | 28 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 9+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Tierney KelseyG | 23 | 12.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Tamya SmithF | 22 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Destiny ThomasC | 22 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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