South Alabama 75, Akron 74
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at James A. Rhodes Arena. South Alabama our rank 290 · 1-3; Akron our rank 230 · 0-3.
Who won South Alabama vs Akron?
Final: South Alabama 75, Akron 74. Before tip-off the model gave South Alabama a 44% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 2.0 points for Akron. CJ Wilson scored 20 for South Alabama; Macey Fegan had 17 for Akron.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jessie Joaquim: South Alabama 47%Akron 53%
The white mark is the call with her: Akron 56%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Akron without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | ||||
| Jessie Joaquim | 1.2 | 53% | −3 | 82–82 |
| Macey Fegan | 1.0 | 54% | −2 | 81–82 |
Change is in Akron's win chance, in points. Scores read South Alabama, then Akron. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
South Alabama
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Akron
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Alabama | Akron | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.5 239th | 86.2 248th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.4 328th | 97.1 239th |
| Possessions a game | 73.0 96th | 73.7 57th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.3% 334th | 43.0% 313th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 223rd | 46.2% 224th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.8% 51st | 23.3% 168th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 192nd | 32.8% 175th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 95th | 0.23 65th |
The widest gap: Akron's offense (248th) against South Alabama's defense (328th), of 363 teams.
First half
South Alabama led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 5.1 points and the total by 1.7.
- At halftime
- South Alabama 40, Akron 36
- Projected halftime score
- South Alabama 38, Akron 39
- First-half margin
- Akron by 1.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
South Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julieta CejaF | 39 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Jolie MantzG | 30 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| Deborah OrianegbenaF | 29 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| CJ WilsonG | 28 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Terren CoffilG | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaida RedwineG | 17 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Cam GolstonG | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Esther KursiteC | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Aroa MangasG | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Akron
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla HeardG | 32 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Macey FeganF | 31 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie JoaquimF | 27 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaena BrewG | 23 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Teniesha ClarkeG | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kailee BransfordG | 20 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Monique MitchellG | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaylah ThorntonG | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kam'Ren RhodesG | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |