Akron at Mercyhurst
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Mercyhurst Athletic Center. Akron our rank 230 · 0-3; Mercyhurst our rank 291 · 1-3.
Who will win Akron vs Mercyhurst?
The model gives Mercyhurst a 51% chance to beat Akron, with a projected score of Mercyhurst 68, Akron 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | |||||
| WalzG · 30 min | 13.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 15+ 37% | |
| WilsonG · 29 min | 12.4 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| HernandezG · 28 min | 10.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 10+ 54% | |
| HallF · 30 min | 10.5 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 10+ 52% | |
| Akron | |||||
| BrewG · 31 min | 12.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 10+ 63% | |
| FeganF · 33 min | 12.0 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 62% | |
| ThorntonG · 18 min | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5+ 61% | |
| MitchellG · 13 min | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 5+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Carmaya Bowman: Akron 52%Mercyhurst 48%
The white mark is the call with her: Mercyhurst 51%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Mercyhurst without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | ||||
| Carmaya Bowman | 0.8 | 48% | −3 | 68–68 |
| Akron | ||||
| Jessie Joaquim | 1.2 | 55% | +4 | 67–69 |
| Macey Fegan | 1.0 | 54% | +3 | 67–69 |
Change is in Mercyhurst's win chance, in points. Scores read Akron, then Mercyhurst. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Akron 0-3LLL
- Nov 9L 54-70at Xavier
- Nov 5L 60-66at George Mason
- Nov 2L 74-75vs South Alabama
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 62.7 and allowing 70.3
Mercyhurst 1-3LWLL
- Nov 11L 64-73at St Bonaventure
- Nov 8L 57-91at Ohio State
- Nov 5W 94-46vs Penn State Beaver
- Nov 3L 37-63at Seton Hall
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 63.0 and allowing 68.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Akron | Mercyhurst | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.2 248th | 86.7 234th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.1 239th | 102.7 334th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.0% 313th | 45.1% 201st |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 224th | 49.6% 352nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.3% 168th | 25.4% 298th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 175th | 34.1% 120th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 65th | 0.20 265th |
The widest gap: Akron's offense (248th) against Mercyhurst's defense (334th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Akron 32, Mercyhurst 32
- First-half margin
- Mercyhurst by 0.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.5
- Projected second half
- Akron 36, Mercyhurst 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Akron, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Mercyhurst, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.5 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Akron
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macey FeganF | 33 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Shaena BrewG | 31 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 5+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tyla HeardG | 27 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jessie JoaquimF | 24 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 8+ reb 52% | |||||
| Teniesha ClarkeG | 19 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kaylah ThorntonG | 18 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kailee BransfordG | 17 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Monique MitchellG | 13 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Monique Mitchell (16 min a game).
Mercyhurst
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erica HallF | 30 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Lena WalzG | 30 | 13.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 46% · 3+ threes 50% | |||||
| Sofia WilsonG | 29 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 49% · 5+ ast 43% | |||||
| Cici HernandezG | 28 | 10.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Carmaya BowmanF | 18 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Layke FieldsF | 15 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 50% | |||||
| Alena FusettiG | 15 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Maya AguilarG | 14 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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