Mercyhurst at Cornell
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Newman Arena. Mercyhurst our rank 291 · 1-3; Cornell our rank 213 · 1-2.
Who will win Mercyhurst vs Cornell?
The model gives Cornell a 77% chance to beat Mercyhurst, with a projected score of Cornell 69, Mercyhurst 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell | |||||
| LeonardG · 19 min | 9.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| JacksonG · 25 min | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 10+ 39% | |
| KausF · 20 min | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 10+ 38% | |
| ChenG · 19 min | 7.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 5+ 69% | |
| Mercyhurst | |||||
| WalzG · 29 min | 11.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| WilsonG · 28 min | 10.9 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| HernandezG · 28 min | 9.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 10+ 44% | |
| HallF · 29 min | 9.2 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rachel Kaus: Mercyhurst 24%Cornell 76%
The white mark is the call with her: Cornell 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Cornell without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell | ||||
| Rachel Kaus | 0.5 | 76% | −1 | 60–68 |
| Mercyhurst | ||||
| Carmaya Bowman | 0.8 | 79% | +2 | 59–69 |
Change is in Cornell's win chance, in points. Scores read Mercyhurst, then Cornell. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mercyhurst 1-3LWLL
- Nov 11L 64-73at St Bonaventure
- Nov 8L 57-91at Ohio State
- Nov 5W 94-46vs Penn State Beaver
- Nov 3L 37-63at Seton Hall
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 63.0 and allowing 68.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mercyhurst | Cornell | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.7 234th | 86.3 245th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.7 334th | 95.2 200th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 285th | 70.2 331st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.1% 201st | 43.0% 314th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.6% 352nd | 48.7% 334th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.4% 298th | 25.5% 304th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 120th | 30.1% 312th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 265th | 0.19 317th |
The widest gap: Cornell's offense (245th) against Mercyhurst's defense (334th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mercyhurst 28, Cornell 33
- First-half margin
- Cornell by 5.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.8
- Projected second half
- Mercyhurst 32, Cornell 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mercyhurst, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.5 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Cornell, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 26.0 scored, 39.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mercyhurst
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erica HallF | 29 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Lena WalzG | 29 | 11.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Sofia WilsonG | 28 | 10.9 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 42% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Cici HernandezG | 28 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Carmaya BowmanF | 18 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Layke FieldsF | 16 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
| Alena FusettiG | 15 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Maya AguilarG | 15 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Cornell
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarke JacksonG | 25 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Kelsey LangstonG | 23 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 42% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Paige EngelsG | 21 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Rachel KausF | 20 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Katie LeonardG | 19 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Audrey ChenG | 19 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Ally PapeG | 16 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Ashley ChildersF | 15 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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