Old Dominion v Memphis
Women's · Monday, November 23, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Comerica Center. Old Dominion our rank 208 · 3-1; Memphis our rank 127 · 4-0.
Who will win Old Dominion vs Memphis?
The model gives Memphis a 75% chance to beat Old Dominion, with a projected score of Memphis 73, Old Dominion 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | |||||
| RichmondG · 36 min | 14.8 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 15+ 48% | |
| KelseyG · 23 min | 12.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 63% | |
| RichardsonG · 32 min | 11.8 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 61% | |
| WilliamsC · 29 min | 11.7 | 8.3 | 0.4 | 10+ 60% | |
| Old Dominion | |||||
| VanceG · 28 min | 11.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| StackF · 27 min | 11.2 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 57% | |
| DavisG · 27 min | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 47% | |
| BrackensF · 23 min | 9.8 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Daejah Richmond: Old Dominion 31%Memphis 69%
The white mark is the call with her: Memphis 75%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Memphis without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | ||||
| Daejah Richmond | 2.0 | 69% | −6 | 66–72 |
| Ainaya Williams | 1.8 | 70% | −5 | 66–72 |
| Destiny Thomas | 1.8 | 70% | −5 | 66–72 |
| Tamya Smith | 1.2 | 72% | −3 | 65–72 |
| Old Dominion | ||||
| Riley Stack | 1.6 | 79% | +4 | 64–74 |
| Shadasia Brackens | 1.2 | 78% | +3 | 64–73 |
Change is in Memphis's win chance, in points. Scores read Old Dominion, then Memphis. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Old Dominion 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 67-90at Richmond
- Nov 8W 88-78vs Tennessee St
- Nov 5W 69-55vs Virginia State
- Nov 2W 62-58at C Michigan
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 71.5 and allowing 70.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Old Dominion | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.2 149th | 90.3 172nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.4 306th | 88.5 88th |
| Possessions a game | 73.1 92nd | 72.9 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.5% 174th | 44.0% 274th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.3% 232nd | 43.6% 66th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.4% 178th | 23.9% 217th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 38.2% 12th | 32.8% 181st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 122nd | 0.22 100th |
The widest gap: Memphis's offense (172nd) against Old Dominion's defense (306th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Old Dominion 30, Memphis 35
- First-half margin
- Memphis by 4.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.2
- Projected second half
- Old Dominion 34, Memphis 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Old Dominion, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.0 scored, 31.5 allowed
- Memphis, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 26.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Old Dominion
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalanna CarterG | 29 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Trinity VanceG | 28 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Mia DavisG | 27 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Riley StackF | 27 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Shadasia BrackensF | 23 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Jaida McDonaldF | 17 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Vanessa SepulvedaG | 15 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Memphis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejah RichmondG | 36 | 14.8 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jordan HunterG | 34 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Anjanae RichardsonG | 32 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Ainaya WilliamsC | 29 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 8+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Tierney KelseyG | 23 | 12.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Tamya SmithF | 22 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Destiny ThomasC | 22 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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