Who will win Southern vs Oklahoma?
The model gives Oklahoma a >99% chance to beat Southern, with a projected score of Oklahoma 94, Southern 47.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oklahoma | |||||
| BellF · 23 min | 15.4 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 15+ 51% | |
| ChavezG · 22 min | 13.5 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 15+ 40% | |
| WilliamsF · 24 min | 12.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 10+ 63% | |
| StewartF · 20 min | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 10+ 52% | |
 Southern | |||||
| HurstonF · 22 min | 6.5 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 5+ 61% | |
| PorterF · 18 min | 5.6 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 5+ 52% | |
| DixonG · 20 min | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 5+ 45% | |
| ThorntonG · 23 min | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 5+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sahara Williams: Southern <1%Oklahoma >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Oklahoma >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oklahoma without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | ||||
| Sahara Williams | 5.6 | >99% | 0 | 50–91 |
| Brooklyn Stewart | 4.0 | >99% | 0 | 49–92 |
| Caya Smith | 4.0 | >99% | 0 | 49–92 |
| Isimenme Ozzy-Momodu | 4.0 | >99% | 0 | 49–92 |
| Southern | ||||
| DeMya Porter | 1.3 | >99% | 0 | 47–94 |
| Jocelyn Tate | 1.0 | >99% | 0 | 47–94 |
| Jestiny Dixon | 0.7 | >99% | 0 | 47–94 |
Change is in Oklahoma's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern, then Oklahoma. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 47-86at Minnesota
- Nov 7L 28-99at IllinoisDidn't cover +34.5 · Under 129.5
- Nov 2L 39-81at Oklahoma St
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 38.0 and allowing 88.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Oklahoma 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 98-44vs San José St
- Nov 8W 95-38vs Morgan St
- Nov 2W 91-79vs North Carolina
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 94.7 and allowing 53.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.7 310th | 113.7 10th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.4 227th | 79.2 18th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 76.3 5th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 40.6% 356th | 47.8% 56th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 348th | 41.6% 18th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.1% 325th | 23.5% 182nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 270th | 41.8% 1st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 214th | 0.20 260th |
The widest gap: Oklahoma's defense (18th) against Southern's offense (310th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern 20, Oklahoma 47
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma by 26.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.8
- Projected second half
- Southern 27, Oklahoma 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 18.7 scored, 44.0 allowed
- Oklahoma, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 27.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniya ThorntonG | 23 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Dalayja Hurt-FloydG | 22 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 17% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Zaria HurstonF | 22 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Anaja HallC | 20 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
| Alisha NunleyG | 20 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jestiny DixonG | 20 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Taniya LawsonG | 19 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| DeMya PorterF | 18 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
Oklahoma
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahara WilliamsF | 24 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 57% | |||||
| LeeLee BellF | 23 | 15.4 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 9+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Aaliyah ChavezG | 22 | 13.5 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 25% to play · 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Caya SmithF | 21 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jordan SpeiserG | 21 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Keziah LoftonG | 20 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Brooklyn StewartF | 20 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Sa'Myah SmithF | 19 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Missed the last game: Aaliyah Chavez (25 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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