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Probable Stats / Women's / Wednesday, November 18

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Southern at Notre Dame

Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Purcell Pavilion. Southern our rank 287 · 0-3; Notre Dame AP 13, our rank 17 · 3-0.

Who will win Southern vs Notre Dame?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Notre Dame a >99% chance to beat Southern, with a projected score of Notre Dame 92, Southern 47.

To winNotre Dame >99%Southern <1%
Projected score47–92Southern, then Notre Dame
Margin45.1Notre Dame · no line posted
Total138.6no line posted
First half20–46Notre Dame ahead 96%
Notre Dame by 20by 30by 40by 50by 60by 70Notre Dame by 80Model: Notre Dame by 45.1Notre Dame by 20by 40by 60Notre Dame by 80Model: Notre Dame by 45.1

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Notre Dame
HidalgoG · 27 min22.86.54.525+ 39%
St. RoseG · 26 min15.34.52.915+ 51%
MacyF · 24 min15.26.23.015+ 50%
HardyF · 23 min14.28.90.415+ 44%
Southern
HurstonF · 22 min6.53.30.55+ 61%
PorterF · 18 min5.53.20.25+ 52%
DixonG · 20 min4.92.20.75+ 45%
ThorntonG · 23 min4.72.60.95+ 44%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Hannah Hidalgo: Southern 1%Notre Dame 99%

The white mark is the call with her: Notre Dame >99%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsNotre Dame without herChangeProjected score
Notre Dame
Hannah Hidalgo9.199%−151–87
Anaya Hardy5.9>99%050–89
Madison St. Rose5.7>99%050–89
Leah Macy2.3>99%048–91
Southern
DeMya Porter1.3>99%046–93
Jocelyn Tate1.0>99%046–92
Jestiny Dixon0.7>99%046–92

Change is in Notre Dame's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern, then Notre Dame. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Southern 0-3LLL

    1. Nov 10L 47-86at Minnesota
    2. Nov 7L 28-99at IllinoisDidn't cover +34.5 · Under 129.5
    3. Nov 2L 39-81at Oklahoma St
    Last 3
    0–3, scoring 38.0 and allowing 88.7
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    Notre Dame 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 10W 108-60vs Detroit Mercy
    2. Nov 6W 123-40vs StonehillCovered −45.5 · Over 146.5
    3. Nov 1W 99-75vs Villanova
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 110.0 and allowing 58.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–0
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    SouthernNotre Dame
    Points scored per 100 possessions80.7 310th113.6 12th
    Points allowed per 10096.4 227th80.8 24th
    Possessions a game72.1 164th74.5 24th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)40.6% 356th52.4% 3rd
    Opponents' shooting49.1% 348th42.6% 31st
    Turnovers, share of possessions26.1% 325th21.1% 22nd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.2% 270th36.7% 39th
    Free throws per shot0.21 214th0.21 219th

    The widest gap: Notre Dame's defense (24th) against Southern's offense (310th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Southern 20, Notre Dame 46
    First-half margin
    Notre Dame by 26.0
    First-half points, both teams
    65.7
    Projected second half
    Southern 27, Notre Dame 46
    Second-half points, both teams
    72.9
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Southern, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 18.7 scored, 44.0 allowed
    Notre Dame, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 2 · 61.5 scored, 21.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Southern

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Deniya ThorntonG234.72.60.91.0
    5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 58%
    Dalayja Hurt-FloydG221.82.00.70.3
    2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 17% · 1+ threes 23%
    Zaria HurstonF226.53.30.50.5
    5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 36%
    Anaja HallC204.42.70.20.0
    5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 47%
    Alisha NunleyG203.31.50.50.6
    5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 42%
    Jestiny DixonG204.92.20.70.3
    5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 25%
    Taniya LawsonG194.01.40.60.7
    5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 45%
    DeMya PorterF185.53.20.20.0
    5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 58%

    Notre Dame

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Hannah HidalgoG2722.86.54.51.0
    25+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 45%
    Madison St. RoseG2615.34.52.91.2
    15+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 54%
    Leah MacyF2415.26.23.00.3
    15+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 54%
    Jacy AbiiG2411.76.54.50.6
    10+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 45%
    Anaya HardyF2314.28.90.40.0
    15+ pts 44% · 9+ reb 50%
    Jenica LewisG209.93.33.01.2
    10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 54%
    Amari BylesG164.53.01.30.3
    5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 37%
    Bella RagoneG154.52.31.10.6
    5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 43%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Wed, Nov 18

    All games
    1. 5 PMprojected 64-70Syracuse at Harvard, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 70-68Georgia at Georgia Tech, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 71-63Iowa State at Northern Iowa, women's: game page
    4. 7 PMprojected 63-72Penn at Saint Joseph's, women's: game page
    5. 7 PMprojected 64-75Ole Miss at Ohio State, women's: game page
    6. 7:30 PMprojected 62-72St John's at Oklahoma St, women's: game page
    Southern next: at Oklahoma, Sun, Nov 15 · <1%Notre Dame next: vs DePaul, Sat, Nov 14 · 98%Southern: schedule and oddsNotre Dame: schedule and odds