Tennessee St at Louisville
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center. Tennessee St our rank 317 · 1-2; Louisville AP 7, our rank 10 · 5-0.
Who will win Tennessee St vs Louisville?
The model gives Louisville a >99% chance to beat Tennessee State, with a projected score of Louisville 98, Tennessee St 46.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | |||||
| RobertsG · 26 min | 15.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 15+ 54% | |
| BerryG · 24 min | 15.5 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 15+ 52% | |
| JonesG · 25 min | 11.8 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 10+ 61% | |
| JoynerF · 18 min | 10.3 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 50% | |
| Tennessee St | |||||
| KamaraG · 28 min | 10.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 51% | |
| AlexanderF · 23 min | 8.3 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 36% | |
| NyamjavG · 23 min | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 5+ 62% | |
| ZhengPG · 28 min | 5.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 5+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Imari Berry: Tennessee St <1%Louisville >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Louisville >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Louisville without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | ||||
| Imari Berry | 5.0 | >99% | 0 | 49–95 |
| Tajianna Roberts | 4.5 | >99% | 0 | 48–95 |
| Zamareya Jones | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 48–95 |
| Mackenly Randolph | 4.1 | >99% | 0 | 48–96 |
Change is in Louisville's win chance, in points. Scores read Tennessee St, then Louisville. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tennessee St 1-2WLL
- Nov 8L 78-88at Old Dominion
- Nov 5L 54-78at William & Mary
- Nov 2W 95-46vs Toccoa Falls
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 75.7 and allowing 70.7
Louisville 5-0WWWWW
- Nov 12W 94-73at Ball StateDidn't cover −22.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 10W 71-35vs Lindenwood
- Nov 8W 80-57at S Indiana
- Nov 4W 87-35vs Stetson
- Nov 2W 119-47vs Bellarmine
- Last five
- 5–0, scoring 90.2 and allowing 49.4
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tennessee St | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.6 285th | 114.8 9th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.8 322nd | 78.6 15th |
| Possessions a game | 74.2 37th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 164th | 50.0% 11th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.4% 238th | 42.6% 32nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.0% 225th | 20.4% 10th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.4% 150th | 38.2% 12th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 124th | 0.19 324th |
The widest gap: Louisville's offense (9th) against Tennessee St's defense (322nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tennessee St 19, Louisville 49
- First-half margin
- Louisville by 29.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Projected second half
- Tennessee St 27, Louisville 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tennessee St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.3 scored, 30.0 allowed
- Louisville, first halves so far
- Led 5 of 5 · 49.0 scored, 22.6 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tennessee St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sherry ZhengPG | 28 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Somah KamaraG | 28 | 10.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Addison MeltonG | 24 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Raegan StarksF | 23 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Nandinkhusel NyamjavG | 23 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| LaKiara AlexanderF | 23 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Genesis HarrisG | 18 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Akeera SparksPF | 12 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 52% | |||||
Louisville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajianna RobertsG | 26 | 15.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 3+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Zamareya JonesG | 25 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 45% · 6+ ast 50% | |||||
| Imari BerryG | 24 | 15.5 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 56% | |||||
| Carys BakerF | 21 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Mackenly RandolphF | 20 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Elif IstanbulluogluF | 19 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Amiya JoynerF | 18 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 8+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Ariyana CradleG | 16 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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