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Probable Stats / Women's / Saturday, November 14

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Miss Valley St at Tennessee St

Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Gentry Center. Miss Valley St our rank 358 · 0-4; Tennessee St our rank 317 · 1-2.

Who will win Miss Valley St vs Tennessee St?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Tennessee State a 89% chance to beat Mississippi Valley State, with a projected score of Tennessee St 75, Miss Valley St 59.

To winTennessee St 89%Miss Valley St 11%
Projected score59–75Miss Valley St, then Tennessee St
Margin15.3Tennessee St · no line posted
Total134.3no line posted
First half27–36Tennessee St ahead 80%
Miss Valley St by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Tennessee St by 50Model: Tennessee St by 15.3Miss Valley St by 10by 10by 30Tennessee St by 50Model: Tennessee St by 15.3

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Tennessee St
KamaraG · 31 min16.64.02.215+ 59%
AlexanderF · 24 min12.78.81.715+ 35%
NyamjavG · 24 min10.14.72.210+ 49%
ZhengPG · 31 min9.24.35.510+ 42%
Miss Valley St
MarshallG · 31 min13.33.71.415+ 38%
WintersG · 28 min10.43.41.710+ 51%
BlockG · 29 min7.33.42.05+ 67%
Lee-RoseF · 23 min6.25.50.95+ 58%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Miss Valley St 0-4LLLL

    1. Nov 12L 55-87at Lipscomb
    2. Nov 9L 55-75at Southern Miss
    3. Nov 5L 62-83at Chicago St
    4. Nov 3L 42-80at Marquette
    Last 4
    0–4, scoring 53.5 and allowing 81.2

    Tennessee St 1-2WLL

    1. Nov 8L 78-88at Old Dominion
    2. Nov 5L 54-78at William & Mary
    3. Nov 2W 95-46vs Toccoa Falls
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 75.7 and allowing 70.7

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Miss Valley StTennessee St
    Points scored per 100 possessions70.9 360th82.6 285th
    Points allowed per 100102.4 330th101.8 322nd
    Possessions a game75.8 9th74.2 37th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)39.6% 362nd45.6% 164th
    Opponents' shooting46.8% 261st46.4% 238th
    Turnovers, share of possessions24.4% 257th24.0% 225th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.2% 270th33.4% 150th
    Free throws per shot0.23 70th0.22 124th

    The widest gap: Tennessee St's offense (285th) against Miss Valley St's defense (330th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Miss Valley St 27, Tennessee St 36
    First-half margin
    Tennessee St by 8.8
    First-half points, both teams
    63.7
    Projected second half
    Miss Valley St 32, Tennessee St 39
    Second-half points, both teams
    70.6
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Miss Valley St, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 4 · 22.2 scored, 42.0 allowed
    Tennessee St, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 33.3 scored, 30.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Miss Valley St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sydnei MarshallG3113.33.71.40.4
    15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38%
    Bryana BlockG297.33.42.01.1
    5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 55%
    I'Xana WintersG2810.43.41.71.0
    10+ pts 51% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 58%
    Te'Lynn Lee-RoseF236.25.50.90.1
    5+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 22%
    Joyce MulumbaC202.35.00.30.0
    5+ pts 18% · 5+ reb 52%
    Ja'la DouglasG194.42.90.90.1
    5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 23%
    Mariah Reed-JonesG163.82.41.20.2
    5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 33%
    Ka'Mbili NelsonF153.42.80.60.2
    5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 49%

    Missed the last game: Keanna Coburn (19 min a game).

    Tennessee St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sherry ZhengPG319.24.35.51.3
    10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 57% · 6+ ast 46%
    Somah KamaraG3116.64.02.21.5
    15+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 42%
    Addison MeltonG266.62.61.21.5
    5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 42%
    LaKiara AlexanderF2412.78.81.70.3
    15+ pts 35% · 9+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 47%
    Nandinkhusel NyamjavG2410.14.72.21.1
    10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 60%
    Raegan StarksF237.85.71.20.5
    10+ pts 32% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 38%
    Genesis HarrisG187.11.91.51.4
    5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 43%
    Akeera SparksPF102.72.30.40.1
    5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 60%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 14

    All games
    1. 2 PMprojected 62-70Rhode Island at St John's, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 69-67Wisconsin at Green Bay, women's: game page
    3. 3 PMprojected 73-62California at Santa Barbara, women's: game page
    4. 4 PMprojected 74-65North Carolina at Penn, women's: game page
    5. 4:30 PMprojected 72-62Nebraska vs Kansas, women's: game page
    6. 6 PMprojected 69-71Northwestern vs App State, women's: game page
    Miss Valley St next: vs West Georgia, Fri, Nov 20 · 16%Tennessee St next: at Louisville, Tue, Nov 17 · <1%Miss Valley St: schedule and oddsTennessee St: schedule and odds