Bellarmine 47, Louisville 119
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center. Bellarmine our rank 352 · 1-3; Louisville AP 7, our rank 10 · 5-0.
Who won Bellarmine vs Louisville?
Final: Louisville 119, Bellarmine 47. Before tip-off the model gave Louisville a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 57.5 points for Louisville. Tajianna Roberts scored 15 for Louisville; Hana Abdel Aal had 9 for Bellarmine.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Imari Berry: Bellarmine <1%Louisville >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Louisville >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Louisville without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | ||||
| Imari Berry | 5.0 | >99% | 0 | 55–108 |
| Tajianna Roberts | 4.5 | >99% | 0 | 55–108 |
| Zamareya Jones | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 55–108 |
| Mackenly Randolph | 4.1 | >99% | 0 | 55–108 |
Change is in Louisville's win chance, in points. Scores read Bellarmine, then Louisville. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Bellarmine
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Louisville
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bellarmine | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 76.2 349th | 114.8 9th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.9 347th | 78.6 15th |
| Possessions a game | 74.5 24th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.2% 309th | 50.0% 11th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 306th | 42.6% 32nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 29.0% 355th | 20.4% 10th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 165th | 38.2% 12th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 136th | 0.19 324th |
The widest gap: Louisville's offense (9th) against Bellarmine's defense (347th), of 363 teams.
First half
Louisville led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 17.9 points and the total by 15.7.
- At halftime
- Bellarmine 21, Louisville 72
- Projected halftime score
- Bellarmine 22, Louisville 55
- First-half margin
- Louisville by 33.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Bellarmine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayce HymanF | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hana Abdel AalC | 24 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Coumba KeitaG | 23 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Leigha AcoffG | 21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Tacko SyC | 20 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Savannah RowlandG | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaylyn LelieG | 18 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Triniti RalstonG | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anna RodgersG | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Louisville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamareya JonesG | 22 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Tajianna RobertsG | 19 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Deniya PrawlG | 19 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Reagan BenderG | 19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Carys BakerF | 18 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Ayse Melek DemirerF | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Imari BerryG | 14 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Elif IstanbulluogluF | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Grace MbuguaF | 13 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 |