Who will win Towson vs Villanova?
The model gives Villanova a 99% chance to beat Towson, with a projected score of Villanova 87, Towson 55.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villanova | |||||
| BascoeG · 29 min | 23.2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 25+ 41% | |
| HenryG · 25 min | 13.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 15+ 37% | |
| BenderF · 19 min | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 40% | |
| JoensG · 21 min | 8.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 38% | |
 Towson | |||||
| KhalilG · 33 min | 8.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 34% | |
| ShepardG · 30 min | 8.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 10+ 34% | |
| WilkersonG · 25 min | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 5+ 66% | |
| RenningerG · 28 min | 6.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jasmine Bascoe: Towson 2%Villanova 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Villanova 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Villanova without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | ||||
| Jasmine Bascoe | 6.2 | 98% | −1 | 58–84 |
| Kennedy Henry | 4.4 | 99% | 0 | 57–85 |
| Brooke Bender | 3.4 | 99% | 0 | 57–85 |
| Kelsey Joens | 2.9 | 99% | 0 | 57–86 |
Change is in Villanova's win chance, in points. Scores read Towson, then Villanova. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Towson 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 64.7 and allowing 74.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Towson | Villanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.9 221st | 110.4 21st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.1 256th | 87.3 70th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.6% 324th | 48.1% 46th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.7% 189th | 48.1% 316th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.2% 29th | 20.5% 12th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 256th | 34.7% 90th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 289th | 0.20 257th |
The widest gap: Villanova's offense (21st) against Towson's defense (256th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Towson 25, Villanova 43
- First-half margin
- Villanova by 18.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Projected second half
- Towson 31, Villanova 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Towson, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 29.7 allowed
- Villanova, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 37.5 scored, 31.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Towson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoli KhalilG | 33 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Thalia ShepardG | 30 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Ava RenningerG | 28 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 43% to play · 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Eva WilkersonG | 25 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Diamond WattersF | 20 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
| Masyn MarchbanksG | 19 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Peyton WhiteF | 18 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 52% | |||||
| Nadeya RegalaG | 18 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Ava Renninger (36 min a game).
Villanova
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine BascoeG | 29 | 23.2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 |
| 25+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 46% · 6+ ast 44% | |||||
| Kennedy HenryG | 25 | 13.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Alexis EberzG | 22 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Dani CeserettiG | 21 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Kelsey JoensG | 21 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Simone PelishG | 19 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Brooke BenderF | 19 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Elise BenderF | 19 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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