E Kentucky 89, UT Martin 90
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Kathleen and Tom Elam Center. E Kentucky our rank 172 · 4-1; UT Martin our rank 271 · 2-2.
Who won E Kentucky vs UT Martin?
Final: UT Martin 90, Eastern Kentucky 89. Before tip-off the model gave UT Martin a 36% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 4.8 points for Eastern Kentucky. Raven Sims scored 28 for UT Martin; Kirsten Lewis-Williams had 17 for E Kentucky.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Nicole Fritea: E Kentucky 59%UT Martin 41%
The white mark is the call with her: E Kentucky 64%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | E Kentucky without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Kentucky | ||||
| Nicole Fritea | 1.7 | 59% | −5 | 79–76 |
| Liz Freihofer | 1.5 | 59% | −5 | 79–76 |
| Kailani Lindsey | 1.3 | 60% | −4 | 79–76 |
| Kenleigh Woods | 0.9 | 61% | −3 | 79–75 |
Change is in E Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read E Kentucky, then UT Martin. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
E Kentucky
No games yet this season: this is its first.
UT Martin
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| E Kentucky | UT Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.3 189th | 89.4 187th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.3 135th | 103.9 342nd |
| Possessions a game | 73.9 51st | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.6% 236th | 45.1% 200th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.5% 64th | 51.8% 363rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 158th | 22.7% 111th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 307th | 29.5% 333rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 49th | 0.20 233rd |
The widest gap: E Kentucky's offense (189th) against UT Martin's defense (342nd), of 363 teams.
First half
E Kentucky led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 11.6.
- At halftime
- E Kentucky 45, UT Martin 40
- Projected halftime score
- E Kentucky 38, UT Martin 35
- First-half margin
- E Kentucky by 2.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
E Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz FreihoferG | 40 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 2 |
| Luna UedaG | 38 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Kirsten Lewis-WilliamsG | 31 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Kailani LindseyF | 27 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenleigh WoodsG | 27 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Brooke NichelsonG | 23 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Michelle UgwahF | 11 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Rylee KalocayG | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
UT Martin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler JonesG | 29 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Olivia SmithG | 28 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Raven SimsG | 27 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| Lily EspeletF | 18 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Sidni MiddletonG | 17 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Alorian StoryC | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Maddie PenneyG | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mimi LazarevicG | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kennedy HortonF | 12 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 |